Cheers Jaks,
Got to admit I never pictured myself raving on about the statistical analysis of the CTP drilling program.... On my day off! LOL
I must have CTP FEVER!!!!
Again its academic now... I can see what your trying to say.... But the laws of probability do not work like that...
"3 dice.
3 rolls to hit a six.
no. 1 dice has 3 sixes marked on it.
no. 2 dice has 1 six marked on it.
no. 3 dice has 1 six marked on it."
Because its the the probability across the entire event of 3 rolls.... The rolls are independant of each other and have no effect on the one before or after....
The easiest way to picture the event would be to roll 3 seperate dice at the same time... Statistically the first dice does not effect the second or third dice... Even if it does have 3 sixs on it...All 3 dice are completely independant of each other and will land where they want....
I also see that you have taken into account the difference in probability of dice one with 3 sixs on it... Which is perfectly fine as the laws of probability take this in to account....
Even if the first well fails... The probability across the total event of 3 wells remains intact....
For the 3 CTP wells there are only 8 outcomes all independant of each other...
All 3 are succesful = 2.86%
Both Well 1 & 2 succeed only = 8.14%
Both Well 1 & 3 Succeed only = 10.14%
Only Well 1 Succeeds = 28.86%
Both well 2 & 3 Succeed only = 2.86%
Only Well 2 Succeeds = 8.14%
Only Well 3 Succeeds = 10.14%
No wells Succeed = 28.86%
So these are all the possible outcomes that can occur during a 3 well program using the CTP percentages... It is no fluke if you add them all together they equal 100% or 1.
71% takes into account all possible outcomes across the entire event(100%).... The entire event is 3 wells....
You will note that the possibility of Only Well 1 succeeding is higher then only 2 or only 3..... As it does take into account the higher probability of well 1....
In order to equate at least one well succeeding... You would add the outcomes together that have at least one well.. = 71.14%
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