Fair enough.
In that context, if you are thinking of a dividend, then that will be unlikely . A divy will almost certainly not be tax effective for shareholders due to lack of franking credits as any tax BRK pay will be essentially US corporate tax.
As far as a buy back is concerned, I am also frustrated by the lack of action here. Companies typically perform buy backs when they have excess capital, significant profits which also usually sees the share prices at high levels. BRK have record profits, cash in the bank , zero debt and the share price is 75% down from all time highs. For me, that is the ideal time to have a buy back and start the BRKOB option dilution unwind at a price comparable to the option exercise price. ... a no lose situation where either the buy back is a catalyst for a share price rerate, (unlikely to happen IMO) or for me more importantly, even if the share price doesn't rerate now ( more likely IMO), the company buys back as many shares as possible as cheaply as possible which should be the main short term aim .
Having said that, we need to understand that BRK operate in a capital intensive industry and DP doesn't want to jeopardise BRK operations and growth options via lack of capital... we have been there before, which is the reason BRK only have 4 DSU's with ~4000 gross acres instead of 10 DSU's and 8-10,000 gross acres as per the original target.
Just because we as shareholders think BRK with zero debt and $33 million in the bank at Dec 30 2022 ( which will fall to $25-28 million at 30 March 2023) has excess capital, doesn't mean that it does. DP has always stated that any returns to shareholders will be as a result of a monetisation event via a buy back, or cash capital return ( not dividend) or combination.
For a return to occur outside of a monetisation event, IMO either:
1) There has to be as significant increase in cashflow, which may be possible if for example, the Wolf Pack well shoots the lights out and matches the Sundance Kid, Bowery or Billy the Kid in flows per lateral foot with a similar slow decline... however the current oil/ gas price environment will somewhat mitigate the cashflow gains from a higher production rate. There should be a material increase in cash held at the end of the June quarter as WP cash flow from March, April ,May should be impressive. Janita when it comes online will be a small but meaningful contributor at hopefully ~100-150 BOPD. Then without further drilling , we will again see decline for group production set in the 3rd quarter.
2) A decrease in spending which would mean slowing down the rate of SWISH drilling which is possible, as the only commitment to drill in the SWISH will be a HBP well on Bruins ( when court approval for the DSU is given which should be fairly close and the company has 12 months from that date to drill)
Buys backs are usually for 10% of the equity base over a 12 month period. At current prices that would cost BRK $5-6 million or ~$400-500 K a month... The question for the company would be , is this affordable outside a monetisation event without impacting future operations and growth plans?
Cheers
Dan
Expand
(20min delay)