Kaiser, interesting guy...
Hang on people, as many other experts are predicting, this could be the calm before the storm, in terms of commodities markets, particularly lithium.
The beginning of a critical mineral super cycle bull market, he described as recession resistant.
Particularly, the Chinese are trying to crash the lithium price and their stockpiles are reducing and will soon get to levels which will effect production. This strategy cannot last, particularly with the 2023 rebound in EV sales.
As pointed out previously, the SC6 price has fared well and will continue to do so.
Let the Chinese refiners duke it out for their margins, because supply and security of supply is the main game here...with vertical integration being the end goal.
Unless you have your own mine, you probably will not last.
KAISER VALUATION
(Not all the info is accurate, so view this as a rough guide only)
Company info-30/6/2022
Valuation- March 16 2023
NAL/Authier IPV- C$2.52 B
Moblan IPV- C#1.891B ( has the potential to exceed)
Vallee IPV- C$3.6B- very interesting
East Kimberley graphite IPV- C$1.848B
Mallina IPV- C$2.310B
Pilbara IPVC$1.848B??(same as east Kimberley?)
And this is the first time I have seen our other projects valued if they come to fruition.
If all our projects are positive and come online-
Total-
C$13.942B
A$14.983B
Interesting point is that our IPV for NAL, is currently below our MC!
And that is without adding our other projects.
Last year I wrote a true value of Sayona thread.
Our bricks and mortar value then, with 8.2B shares was 21c
Currently, our SP is 22c, but we have added SO much value to the company....notwithstanding we have 700 milion more shares.
KAISER RESEARCH
Independent Price Verification (IPV) is an increasingly important process within the valuation control framework supporting the finance and risk management functions across a wide range of financial institutions. The core IPV process requires that internal prices are verified against independent third-party sources.
Some interesting figures of what we could be worth.
And if the short interest trend continues-
As the shorts unwind, we should start to see an increase in SP, which has now intersected on our chart....but we are yet to see the effect due to the current macro conditions.
Particularly since we have had many announcements/catalysts, which have had a negligible and short term effect on the SP.
The shorts have unwound previously, and have ramped back up again in the following week, so lets see what happens this time.
They may try and take advantage of the current macro weakness, or they may be losing their nerve and exiting , as we have had many catalysts, without a sustained rise. They may feel the dam is about to burst and they have milked it long enough.
It has after all, been a sustained 7 month attack thus far. They could get caught short very quickly, particularly if we have our pending offtake announcement drop. This will contain the tangible metrics the analysts want to see, before determining an updated valuation.
They may even have a little of info on the side, and may have a whiff the offtake is or some other major catalyst is imminent.
In terms of the macro, the offending banks, for the most part been bailed, or had money thrown at them and their patrons.
This demonstrates the focus on preventing further recession risk, and the US regulators willingness to prevent a long term downturn
If that's the end of it, we may have a more positive week next week, or even a decent announcement, and could go on a little run.
Additionally, due to the failing US banking system, Powell may be forced to minimise or negate his rate rises.
There is always something.....but the Short term volatility will pass...
As XEC commented, the chart is actually looking primed for a run, its just a matter of when.
It certainly has been playing out for a while, but it all seems to be lining up with the chart
Stabilising macro...hopefully no more banks fail
Shorts unwinding...continuation
Bottoming and steady reversal of SC6 price
Weak AU dollar, helping boost the balance sheet
Multiple near term re-rating announcements, including-
- production increases
- Moblan resource upgrade
- Carbonate PFS ( which may change to an ICS hydroxide plant)
- Next major offtake. LG/Posco.....VW???
- Left field- further M&A, and Amoss plant purchase
Anyway, let's see what next week brings.
Monday may be another bloodbath......SPI down 98...OK if you are shopping....
Hopefully the Yanks get their s**** together and we improve later in the week.
Good luck everyone.....
(20min delay)