Against all the backdrop of banks failing, DMS commissioning, CATL price games, shorters, interest rates, supply and demand forecasts and a whole heap of other stuff, I have come to one conclusion.
None of it really matters that much.
The only thing I think that matters right now is the Lithium price - and unfortunately (even though it's a rort and not reflective of the global or even China market), specifically what seems to matter is the SPOT prices in China.
Until the SPOT price in China stabilises and starts to rise again, or some expert can convince the market it should be ignoring the spot price, then Lithium stocks will struggle. And the reverse once these prices start to rise again.
The rest appears to be just noise and stocks are just following the trend of the underlying commodity.
I'm hoping we see a recovery of SPOT prices in Q2 and that the market also starts to understand that the spot China market is a very small part of the market and more attention should be placed on contract pricing. The only issue is contract pricing is somewhat sensitive and confidential.
We are at the "bottom of the first" in a 9 innings match - So I will be holding for quite a few more innings yet.
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