my valuation of ccc

My valuation of CCC. Feel free to torch me.

Hi All, Finally got around to trying to put a value on CCC.

At this point as Champ points out we are looking at an income of $10 p.m. from vlakvaak

= 100,000 tpa x $120(after costs) = $12M ZAR p.m
= 1.8M AUD p.m. = 21.6M p.a.
= at 60% interest = $12M p.a.

From Project X

= 100,000 tpa x $120(after costs) = $12M ZAR p.m
= 1.8M AUD p.m. = 21.6M p.a.
= at 75% interest = $16M p.a.

From Vaalbank

= 150,000 tpa x $200(after costs) = $30M ZAR p.m
= 4.5M AUD p.m. = 54M p.a.
= at 100% interest = $54M p.a.

So over the next year with an income of 10M we are sitting on a P/E of about 5.

To be honest I don't think CCC is over value at the moment.

All things going well CCC will ramp up the other two projects. Based on the lower range of their figures we are looking at a combined throughput of around 350k tpm or around 4.2M tpa and we can look forward to a combined earnings of around $80-100 M p.a.

Since we expect no dilution this gives us a market cap of around $450 M if we apply a similar PE of 5.

My conclusion is the CCC is a geniune 8-10 bagger over 24 months. However this will take 24 months and the ramp up from the current MC of $50m could still be quite slow.

The key risks as I see them are;

1. The railway allocation. Currently only 1.5Mtpa. And this esitmate is based on 4.2mtpa
2. The price of coal. Everything looks good but I'm expecting a big financial fallout later in the year. My own opinion.
3. Sovereign Risk.

Let the insults begin.