They are not going to be packing up shop, shutting down ops or stopping production. The have already invested billions in infratructure, mining plans, HR and ports. No chance.. they can still get a profit (albeit smaller) from this and the sunk costs in their Australian operations are massive.
It is the miners that currently do not mine and have limited OS opportunities that will be most affected. They are the ones who currently pay no tax, but are on the cusp of definitive and prefeasability studies. They are the guys who are yet to spend billions here, but who's plans are now in complete disarray.
Let's be factual about the impact. These juniors were hoping to secure funding at rates that reflected high risk and a marginal 44% tax rate on their returns (on average). That potential return has now been reduced by 25% (the differential of the tax rates). There is no doubt many will now have to recut all the financials within these studies (many years in the making) .. and they may not be able to even begin doing that until the detail is finally revealed (12 months away according to Fergusson). It is certain that some of these projects will not be feasible. Rudd has even conceded this.
What is also clear to even to the most ardent backer of this tax is that there is no way anyone would commit billions to new projects whilst the details of the tax are mystery .. Whislt delays, posturing, committees, sub committees, and gab fests are a normal part of the Rudd government they only mean one thing in the real world where the rest of us live ... MONEY.
