Ann: Completion of ALC Group acquisition by Tesserent Academy, page-18

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dbd25

6,833 Posts.

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23/03/23

16:54

Post #: 66927141
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Originally posted by neke86: ↑

"pretty common these days" among garbage companies maybe?

Forecasts should be easy, unless management have literally no idea what's happening in their business, there is a number somewhere. It certainly isn't self defeating either, unless you are consistently underperforming and missing your targets.

Give us an honest forecast, if you miss it, give us an honest explanation for the variance, it really isn't that hard. I mean, you shareholders have forgiven these guys an egregious destruction of shareholder wealth that borders on the abusive, would you really get up in arms over a missed quarterly guidance now?

INSTEAD they opted for FiVe hUndRed MilLioN and then immediately caveated that with "not formal guidance. What is it then? It's just a cocaine fever dream. They have no plan to grow organically to that number. Their organic growth has been demonstrably bad for some time, and so even if it improved they would struggle to grow the current conglomeration of businesses beyond $260-300m in that time frame. So they MUST have a plan for acquisitions, but I suspect they don't want to tell you that explicitly because they need patsies to hold the price up for future dilution and capital raising.

If you finished year 10 maths and have the mental fortitude and courage, figure out a middle ground scenario where they grow to $280m turnover but need to purchase another $220m turnover at 4x EBITDA funded using 50% debt and 50% scrip (assuming anyone would be stupid enough to take scrip lmao) then look at what happens to the FY26 enterprise value.

Expand

By setting a $500m revenue target, it feels like they are planning to bolt some wings onto the "red rattler" that is TNT and are telling the market that the train will become airborne in 12 months. It just doesnt seem at all probable.
All imho,dyor

TNT Price at posting: 6.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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