i think oversold, page-45

Whatever the reason for the ongoing decline, I'm hoping it's simply to do with poor communication and lack of immediate results that's fuelling company uncertainty amid external market uncertainty.

Communication has been noticably thin over the past few months as has been noted here before. Perhaps the departure of Pan Orient's Thai-based COO is partly the cause.

HR issues can be resolved. Thai politics is not an issue imho (Thailand is currently experiencing its strongest growth for around 15 years according to a talking head on CNBC yesterday). Selling pressure can not last forever if it simply involves a large holder exiting or someone working the depth to accumulate.

These are all temporary issues that can be resolved over time.

My only concern at present is if the decline is a result of something more permanent, such as something reservoir related or some other issue(s) that could affect the integrity of current reserves. Nothing has been disclosed, no such issue is reported in any research and I have no other reason to think this an issue at present.

So as long as there are no permanent issues affecting reserves, CVN now represents even better value than when it sunk to below 25c during late 2008.

Since that time, production may have declined (no doubt one of the primary reasons for the steady, but imo temporary, decline over the past 9 months), but intrinsic value has increased substantially more than that imho.

The share price may only have increased by around 50% from its lows over the past 18 months, but reserves replacement has been excellent with back to back 2P reserves increases of 40%+ pa, and the oil price has recovered to more sustainable levels.