Running discussion on SP, page-77062

I feel for holders here. Just saw the announcement from last week outlining the waiting game to September 2024. That really spells two outcomes here.

1. Come out of suspension prior to Sept 2024, which, given the uncertainty over how all this plays out, likely means AVZ trade at 40-50% of what it closed at (probably in the range of 30-40c) given the discount the market will put on the low working capital balance, geopolitical muckaround, odds of some of AVZ'z stake going into other hands, Li price volatility, and history of some questionable management decisions. They need to raise cash soon.

2. Stay in suspension and ASX will have no option but to turn the lights off itself around May next year.

I think the likely outcome here is (1). Some sort of emergency cash raising, probably at a fair whack of a discount, come out of suspension and let the market decide what is fair value. I think the re-open price will be in that 30-40c range - there's a price for everything. It's not a zero, but there's A LOT of creases to iron out here. Its a long road back I'm afraid.