Evening Siren Song, to be honest that's a little tricky to answer for a couple of reasons, one of them being I'm no analyst.. The other is that we're operating in Cuba and the resource is still in the ground..
Comparatively HCH "Hot Chilli" seem the closest comparo to make unless some know of another off the top of your heads?
Multi intrusive, large in ground tonnage porphyry deposit with M&I resource and claims Glencore as a 9-10% major SH.. MC $105m aud
Admittedly the location is high in the hills with a good 60+ km of seawater pipeline infrastructure req and at least 30k of HV powerline easement to be constructed along with processing plant and suitable mining fleet.. Grade is a fraction skinny with the cutoff possibly indicative of the location cost to mine? Not sure..
But it is in Chile and not Cuba flat land near sea level and in close proximity to water and power infrastructure plus local workforce.. Which probably means they both cancel each other out on mine metrics..
Which leaves the potential resource and possible JV partner?
We know they are setting it up to hopefully attract foreign investment, they need to because there's prob no way they'll raise the cash to drill it out otherwise!
Head Geo claims it's a fertile copper gold resource that will be highly sought after and could well extend to 1000m in two locations so poss 500Mt ea on those numbers at Pilar and Nicolas.. Gaspar is a kicker or sweetner I'd suggest so adds weight but maybe not $$ to the equation just yet.
No doubt they are pitching for foreign investment and will plug all the flat land, close proximity, tax break & permitting benefits of an initial high grade shallow resource sitting over the top of at least one high grade potassic Sulphide Resource immediately.. below.
What's all that worth to anybody.., Well I still can't see the MC going much past $100m in the short term unless something really excites in those first 5 holes.. So a target of $100m seems reasonable when you consider they'd truck the gold to another mill for tolling after mining down to 50m.. and then sell a 70-75% share in the remainder with proceeds split 50/50 and with ea retaining 12.5% of the project to suckle on future returns. With Geominera milking tax royalties from the get go, if not the full taxation levy.
Would love to say billions but reality is someone has to own & manage it, whilst drilling the crap out of it before the even look at raising a shovel & bucket in anger. So yeah, call it $100-$150m which divided by SOI is 20c at $100m, 40c at $200m and a laugh at 0.6c for a 35m win at arbitration and 0.92 if the full 45 comes back...
Nice to dream but in the current market I'd simply back myself to be worth around $50-$100m should things go right by the end of the year and by right I mean 5 holes drilled with major showing interest and wanting in to drill.. 500Mt x 1.2% is circa 6mt Cu by the way, but as I said it has to be drilled, measured and mined first & that all costs money and increases timeline risk..
Still $50-100m is what 2-400% gain from here, more even.. And I don't think you'll need to wait for 2 years as i think the confirmation of the porph in those first 5 holes will be catalyst enough to get going... So roll on April you son of a goat H8tey
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