what an opportunity - an npv of 50c per well, page-17

Wouldn't the same source rock mean it is infact "similar" geologically and not "NOTHING like Mereenie"? When you say geologically do you mean the structure of the target and how are we to know it isn't infact "similar"?

Okay... I will explain. New information has come to light in this thread which is very interesting.

The article that TheDhon quoted was posted in its entirety earlier and said:

"Johnstone-1... oil up to 500 MMbbls UOIIP (shale gas/oil potential, will core the HVS)"

HVS is the Horn Valley Siltstone, which is the source rock for the Mereenie/Palm Valley fields. But it is NOT the reservoir. The primary reservoir rock is the Pacoota Sandstone.

Mereenie/PV are conventional 'classic' oil/gas traps, ie a doubly-plunging anticline structure with a source rock, a reservoir (mainly Pacoota) and a cap rock (interestingly in this case the source and cap rock are actually both the HVS). I could tell you a lot more about these fields and the structure if anyone's interested but it's not important here.

If J-1 is targeting the HVS, this means it is not a conventional oil/gas trap, because the HVS is NOT a reservoir rock. It's a shale, it's tight, it won't flow. You hear a lot about 'tight gas' plays - that's what this will be. I have actually seen the HVS in outcrop on the northern margin of the basin, I think I even have a photo of it somewhere. It's a nice greenish organic-rich shale but it is definitely not a reservoir.

Thus, even though the source rock is the same, J-1's target would be geologically nothing like Mereenie, hence my original statement.

HOWEVER...

jakspara just quoted from CTP's website with this:

"The Johnstone Prospect is a combined hanging wall and sub-thrust (footwall) prospect"

This is not the same thing as a shale oil play. This is actually a conventional fault structure - different from Mereenie/PV again, but more similar. It explicitly says it's targeting the Pacoota which is the reservoir at M/PV.

So if I were to speak with JH, I would ask him to clarify the fault trap reservoir vs shale oil question. We have just seen two sources that mention two different things. Both apparently came from CTP so this needs clarification.

If it's the fault trap, I'm cautiously optimistic about this well. You just have to keep in mind that Santos had all this land in the 80s and gave it up because they figured they had found the only two fields in the Amadeus. Maybe they missed something (particularly since technology has changed so much since then), and it's definitely worth a shot. Finding a new Mereenie would be a wonderful money-spinner, particularly because Mereenie is actually just about dry (there's talk of shutting it down) so their pipeline would probably be available at reduced cost.

I have not bought into CTP yet because I think some people here are WAY too optimistic about the coal and CSG which I think is just about worthless (I know others disagree but that's my view). But I'll be watching these wells very closely because I think if CTP finds oil, all bets are off.

Hope this helps!