Yes I hear what you say, but my reasoning is not as much with the upside but with the downside for such arbitragers, as if the deal is voted down then they lose big time ie there is no arbitrage. One could obviously argue that they somehow know it will succeed, but I that is not possible to know at this stage. It is the risk to the downside that weighs on the price imo. If the price keeps up, I think we can either assume there will be a yes vote or incremental offer. Just my opinion and not advice.
PS...those "arbitragers" could also have a much more positive view of the fundamental value, and/or be warehousing for an expected subsequent offer that may materialise?
regards
DF
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