Ann: Voluntary suspension update and further extension, page-67

Yes. There is a realistic possibility that the DRC decides - with support of corrupt actors within its heirarchy and under influence of Chinese whispers - that the current licencee Dathcom is unable to progress the Manono Project due to internal blockages. It could present a convincing argument that a Project of strategic importance to the DRC and one that underpins a key element of the governments future planning (namely its battery industry development strategy) is going to be hamstrung by factional fighting, and that it is thus in the national interest to cancel the licence and apportion it to a new entity. That would incur some more reputational damage to the DRCs business interests, particularly with the ongoing China-West competition, but my view is that damage would be containable and ultimately relatively short lived.

I'm certain that there would already have been promises put forward by those with deep pockets who can get the project completed without need for outside finance, that they would provide the government with a faster build and a much greater weighting of ownership to be held by the DRC government than 10%, if they were provided the licence.

in this scenario AVZ would end up with zero. At least in the short term. AVZ would of course take the DRC to the ICC though the outcome of that would not necessarily be certain. It would also be possibe that even in a positive ICC outcome for AVZ (after multiple years) that costs incurred would be reimbursed, perhaps with a bumper, rather than coverage of all the expected future profits. I dont think there's any likelihood of NF's flippant 10B ICC compensation comment coming to pass.

I dont think we are there yet in terms of above scenario playing out, and I still feel a negotiated path forward for AVZ is a likelier outcome. However I do believe we are veering into the 'potential existential crisis' phase.

but unfortunately the answer to 'could AVZ walk away with zero' is most definitely yes.