That all looks good, but is it achievable? When are they targeting for the SP to be $4.25? When they hit production in Mid 2025? I can't see how that sort of target can be met given all of the STILL unknown items.
Given the high of $2.65 (wish I had of picked it!), you look at $4.25 and think that is achievable in the medium term, but the details portray a different picture.
The flowsheet is just about done, great. But what will the margins be like?
And a .7x multiple still so far out from production seems quite hard to justify.
They haven't even bothered to update the Offtakes statement (Q1/23), when we know these weren't finalised.
There needs to be significantly more transparency around the costs associated with the flowsheet, so investors can reflect that in their investment models. My analysis of LKE was looking pretty good until it became apparent that a lot of the deliverable and milestone announcements of the past 36 months were all little more than an X on someone's Gannt chart.
I am eagerly awaiting that transparency so I can wrap my head around the investment case again. Until then, there is too much risk and opportunities elsewhere. If I miss the bottom, so be it.
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