dividend expecations, page-11

$10m fcf for the rest of CY23 is my base case... that's wti/wcs of 75/60 respectively (we're $5 above that right now so a good start)
i'm not convinced we'll get a divvy at this base case as divvy would be around oct and we would only have 6mo of fcf at this price (so $5m).. hard to see them paying $6m divvy unless the price holds at todays

for me, i think there'll eb lots of volatility in the 60-90 wti range over the next 12 months,,, but what i take comfort from is the recent opec cut tells me they want to put a longer-term / sustainable floor in aorund the 75-80 wti range,,, which for calima is fcf positive from base ops. this looks reasonably attractive from a risk/return at this entry point to me - i see downside risk of say 20% but upside of 100%+, the downside risk is really the risk of a cap raise if oil goes below $70 wti for a prolonged period... but every day above $80 now reduces that risk... if we have 6-12 months above 80 wti i think the risk of downside is all but removed... and our collar hedging that's in place now removes any bad hedging impact that limited our upside in CY22

my thoughts anyway