I was tempted to start a new thread with a header mentioning "Chicken Littles" or maybe "NdPr breakeven price". The multiple claims on this thread that Lynas will really struggle at current NdPr prices flies in the face of historical fact. Of course we'd like higher prices for our products (and note sales contracts smooth sales prices compared to spot). So, ignoring all the ups and downs of covid, water, supply chain chaos etc, what is the reality? Here's a chart of Nd prices. (!n Canadian dollars I think; I'm only interested in relativities). Note also that the company's financial year ends June 30th and that their realised prices lag spot. Compare the graph to annual Lynas EBITA: 18-19: $100m 19-20: $59m 20-21: 157m 21-22: $541m. Even with huge levels of disruption such as FY19-20 they can generate profit at much lower Nd prices. Their breakeven appears to be a bit under half the current price. In addition, reports out of China claim that many local operations are finding current prices unprofitable. So Lynas is a low cost operation even in comparison to the Chinese. I'm optomistic...
LYC Price at posting:
$6.06 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)