from Rajiv's post-
It's very very big and in Doug's words they have ready takers for the Carbonate 50KM away across the border!!!!!
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.So within 50km over the border into Michigan, there is Ford, Stellantis and GM..... with Ford being the front runner there.
There is also a case to argue that our product could follow PLL's path and head to either LG or Tesla.
It would certainly make sense, particularly for downstream refining, to have all our product going to the same refiner. Refining circuits are tuned to a specific concentrate, as one producers SC6 is not another producers SC6. So having to adjust the chemistry in a refining plant everytime a different source of concentrate comes in, slows down the process and can vary the cam chemistry.
I found another.....There is also a serious new startup battery maker I called ONE-Our Next Energy.
Founded by ex Apple Inc. veteran Mujeeb Ijaz, they have invested $1.6B in their facility in Van Burren Michigan, 50km from the border, are cashed up, have lots of private and government backing and are fully supported by Michigan officials.
Their battery packs will be mostly LFP, but they have an ace up their sleeve. A battery pack that affords a 700 mile+ range.
It runs dual chemistries or is essentially a LFP and a Li Manganese battery, in one package. The LFP being primarily for the daily commute with a 150-200 mile range and the second Li-manganese battery only coming online when required, via clever software management. They get the benefits of quick charging, safety, longevity, considerably lower expense due to no nickel or cobalt, and overcome the drawbacks of the manganese chemistry, being short cycle life, by only charging it occasionally when used on longer journeys, say on weekends. The only drawback is they are heavier.
ONE tested this battery in a Tesla S and got a certified range of 752 miles.
The factory will come online 2024 and ramp to full production by 2027, so it fits our carbonate timeline of 2025/2026.
They are also making 1 other promise-Mined and made in the U.S.A.
The batteries use materials that are widely available in the United States, particularly iron that’s largely extracted in the Great Lakes region, Ijaz said. Fully IRA compliant.
Who else will have a refined product- carbonate or hydroxide by 2025/2026, mined and made in the USA...or Canada, that will not be used in their own product and be for sale?
Maybe PLL, but I think their timelines and costs, like everyone else, will blow out, and they would probably commit to Tesla.
So ONE, who I had never heard of previous to this, could be in with a chance for our carbonate.
Going back to Ford, they have a huge requirement for the Lightning alone, let alone the transit van and the rest of their retail,commercial and truck fleets,are investing heavily and have had one of the major sources they were counting on stall-- Ioneer
The deal-
Under the agreement, ioneer will deliver 7,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) of lithium carbonate to Ford over a 5-year term, starting in 2025. Ford intends to utilize ioneer's lithium carbonate to produce batteries for use in Ford electric vehicles through BlueOval SK, the Ford-SK On battery manufacturing joint venture.
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INR are now tied up in buckwheat environmental red tape, and on the wrong side of the BLM. Not a good place to be... Arizona lithium has been waiting years for the BLM to allow them further drilling....So God knows when INR's project will get the green light.
It also highlights just how important permitting is...it can make or break a project...thank goodness we have all ours for NAL....
Getting back to Ford, who else can locally fill the void left by Ioneer...... with IRA compliant carbonate??? SYA...
So initially, the offtake may be for all our SC6 to go to one of Ford's current battery makers, who include non other than LG.
But more excitingly, this offtake may eventually include our carbonate refined product to Blue Oval SK, and fill the void left by Ioneer.
The kicker will be in 2025/2026, when our carbonate plant is up and running, ALL our SC6 will feed into OUR carbonate refinery, probably
making 30,000tonnes Li2CO3, go to Ford and attract those big refining margins we all dream of.....no more of this split 50/50 production stuff.
Sounds great.....the only killer of this theory is that Fords' BlueOvalSK battery plants will be in Tennesee and Kentucky......not 50kms over the border......except, they recently announced-
Ford is investing $3.5 billion to build an LFP battery plant in Marshall, Michigan; this wholly owned subsidiary is part of Ford’s $50 billion+ global push to lead the EV revolution. Initial production slated for 2026 with 2,500 employees to start.
Ford will license and use CATL's LFP tech.Who else was quoting 2026 for SYA's carbonate...Dougal.
IRA approved...tick...
Now, Marshall is around 150kms over the border....close enough, particularly if Dougal was speaking figuratively.
So who will it be??
I reckon by next month we will know....
Good luck everyone...
(20min delay)