LTR 1.30% 97.8¢ liontown resources limited

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  1. 9,103 Posts.
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    Posted this in a different thread, but relevant here so posted again in full. Can't see this been sold for $3 a share so close to production, unless the BOD sees i.) lithium prices falling of the cliff and/or ii.) severe cost blowouts continuing and severely impacting NPV and/or iii) commissioning difficulties occurring which reduce spodumene grade or production volumes. In other words, I don't see any of these scenarios eventuating so the below remains my opinion.

    The 'bid', albeit not official bid, is opportunistic by Albermale.

    It basically is the NPV value of the assumed 'new' DFS spodumene sales numbers (revised upwards for higher prices than the DFS used by me, but lower than what PLS is getting in the spot market). Now, this is the point, with LTR about to go into production, and therefore things switch to nominal metrics of EPS and P/E ratios the payback period for the bid, and for arguments sake lets just assume we are stupid enough to give it to Albermale for $2.50 a share, will be very relatively short - 6 to 7 years. Now obviously that amount of profit is not 100% distribution - what I suspect Albermale would do is self fund through profit the hydroxide facilities that LTR was assuming it will do later on through free cash flow.

    It is an opportunistic bid, that is all I can say, given just how close to production LTR are.

    For anyone wanting to understand this refer to Post #:65922837 and Post #:65923045

    All IMO
 
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98.0¢ $1.01 97.0¢ $8.313M 8.404M

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33 252845 97.5¢
 

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98.0¢ 94783 34
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