I said that the good ship Renascor had run aground, not that it had sunk. To push the analogy, I also indicated that a flush of binding offtake agreements is what is needed to refloat the project and allow it to cross the River Rubicon.
And I disagree this is a binary situation where either Renascor succeeds this year on its current path of delaying Stage 1 until the "uncertainties" being faced with Stage 2 are sorted or no Australian graphite miner succeeds. One option would be for Renascor to change tack back to its original plan and push on with producing concentrate for now, a second option would be for Renascor to produce concentrate and some intermediate product in Stage 1 while it attempts to sort out whatever uncertainties remain. Other graphite companies may find other pathways to revenue that avoid the "uncertainties" that Renascor is currently stuck on. I agree that Renascor has the most potential of the local players but that does not guarantee that Renascor will win the competition.
I have seen nothing of substance from David Christensen since December last year on whether or not construction is still on target for sometime in 2023. Of course, you are free to speculate but the suggestion that the longer DC maintains radio silence the more likely we will get positive news regarding timing is either twisted logic or a big gulp of hopium mo. In my bitter experience, no news is not necessarily good news.
As a final aside, in itself I would not overplay that Hanwa is opening a branch in Perth. You do realise that the SA Minister recently personally visited Hanwa's HQ in Japan, obviously promoting the merits of South Australia and then Hanwa turned around and announced it would be opening its Australian office in another jurisdiction, yes? By any measure that is a failed lobbying effort by the South Australians. Anyway Hanwa already has numerous offices in most regions of the world, so them opening another office, this time in Perth, is unsurprising (the graphic below is from their website). I do agree with you that the geopolitical tide has turned in Renascor's favour.
RNU Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held