OK, Well your logic is similarly flawed because you're making som3 big assumptions there as to where those "astute" sellers (whose shares these institutions snapped up over the last 3 months) entered the market.
What if those shares that your "astute mum & dad sellers" sold were originally bought at over $2?
How's your *flawless* logic working for you now? Hmm?
if they bought at ATH and were spooked by the carry-on by some posters in this forum into selling at the points you indicated in your (very prettily coloured) graph, then are they still as astute in their decision to bail, in your opinion?
In the absence of a crystal ball to determine what was going to happen next, your description of astute investment decision-making is nothing more than dumb luck because you have made this call in retrospect, not in real-time as it was happening.
In any event, my "logic" is being offered here for the benefit of those who didn't bail, but whose resoluteness to continue in the same vein is being sorely tested by posters here foretelling doom and gloom.
I am speaking to those who are maybe considering doing the selling inspired by the posters here and am encouraging them to perhaps pay attention to other perspectives than those of the doom posters before making that decision to bail on BRN.
Perhaps they should consider some perspectives based upon undeniable facts, because among those doing the buying are Institutional holders who, despite the falling sp, have not been spooked by the anything of the type persistently suggested about BRN's future prospects by postings here and, to the contrary, those institutional buyers have instead DOUBLED their holdings over the last 3 months. FACT.
in any event, my "logic" and yours are not necessarily comparable because you are speaking from a trading position versus an investment position. Your logic bears no relevance to decisions made in relation to the latter.
If you do not reinvest those funds back into the company (which you say you currently have not and are awaiting a lower re-entry point) and you are satisfied with the quick ROI from the trading positions that you *theoretically* entered and exited (with the benefit of hindsight) in the pretty, colourful chart, then more power to you. (And Im not saying I haven't done the same in the past, more than once, taking advantage of similar opportunities as they presented themselves - but it's never been an enjoyable experience, awaiting the re-entry point when you are only one ill-timed ANN away from it all flying away from you at an exponential rate that would make your quick ROI turnaround pale in significance to what you've missed out on).
What I am saying, though, to those who continue to hold and are subjected on the daily here to posters telling them *how flawed their logic and decision-making is*, is that they should perhaps pay less attention to those posters telling them the sky is falling and sell, sell, sell while they still can before it reaches X dollars/cents, and perhaps pay more attention to the credentials of WHO it is doing all the buying of what they are being spooked into selling... because it's not necessarily "uninformed retail investors".
The data I posted indicates that these Institutional funds have doubled their BRN holdings in the last 3 months. THEY are doing the buying and that's an indisputable fact on the data I've presented.
If you have an explanation for that simple fact then feel free to voice your opinion, but I'll continue to voice mine and what I've extrapolated from this fact is that, unlike your scenario evaluating the astuteness of those who have sold versus those who haven't (without any facts indicating whether those sales were actually realised losses as opposed to the gains your chart presents based on zero facts) the Institutional holders' astuteness is surely self-evident and their investment decisions relating to BRN have been, IN FACT, doubled within the last 3 months because they're not selling anything, they're accumulating BRN.
Make of that what you will, but at least my logic is based on fact. Yours is based on conjecture and supposition that you have skewed to make a case that doesn't necessarily exist, in reality.
We do agree on one thing, though - that "BRN does have a great long term future" but just how long (or short) that "long term" is, is going to be a nail-biting ride for anyone who is currently out and awaiting a re-entry point AND not in possession of a reliable crystal ball.
I just don't have the nerves of steel required for it, right now, and neither, it seems, do the Institutional buyers. That's why i'm investment-focused as opposed to trading-focused atm. Just my opinion.
BRN Price at posting:
46.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)