XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-9234

Differences of opinion make a market. If we didn't disagree there wouldnt be a buyer and a seller, therefore no market. I have no issue there.

But time is gonna prove u wrong

I dont mean this post condescendingly at all, and Im sincere in that. I'm not sure how old u are or how long u been around RE. I'm nearly 51 and been around it a long time, and I been hearing about this RE CRASH since.....FOREVER. And then RE surprises to the upside! Look up Kosiuscko Keen and you'll see wot I mean! I take all the doom talk with a MASSIVE grain of salt now.

Not sure why so many have fallen down the 'doomer thinking' rabbit warren. And it's like they just cant get out. Is it coz they would have to admit they were wrong. Being able to admit u were wrong and adjust your trade/position/investment is the sign of a profitable investor/trader IMHO. Not being able to....well.....hmmmmmm......

Idiotic CB policy globally led to some ridiculous outcomes (eg negative yielding sovereign bond yields and NEGATIVE rates in some countries- who ever though of a situation so insane as to PAY somebody to LEND THEM YOUR MONEY!) This is wot IDIOTIC central bankers FORCED ON many of us.

Thankfully 9% inflation FORCED them to FINALLY see sense! And now capital FINALLY has a cost/return again! JJ is at 4.75%- 5% fed funds rate.

And this has happened WITHOUT the mother of all crashes many well known doomers have been predicting for 15 yrs PLUS now!
And here in Oz Elbow has opened the mass immigration floodgates. We have a rental crisis/ housing shortage. Along with that big respected builders are going to the wall cos they have locked in contract prices for new builds THAT THEY SIMPLY CANNOT DELIVER ON cos they havent factored in the impact of inflation on their building materials and labour.

Constrained supply and massive (artificially manipulated thru mass migration) demand can only lead in ONE direction in my eyes. And I KNOW FOR A FACT the herd is ALWAYS wrong when it comes to RE and the entire herd is now confident of a 30% crash. I'd go the other way personally, just on principle alone, but thats just me.

I'm worried about a BOOM in stocks. Maybe not in RE but even slightly higher prices will be slightly higher end 2023. CERTAINLY NO 30% CRASH!!!

Look if Im wrong I'll get on here and say, "I woz wrong". I made a little bit of money on a stonks market short, I lost a lot more dollars, on paper only, in RE but since we never have any intention of selling, and all we are interested in is the rental return, wot difference does it make anyway??

I have absolutely no issue with admitting I was wrong, like I just was when I held out for 6300 on the XJO insteada taking profits on a circa $10K SPI short. Now the SPI short is LOSING money and it's looking more and more like the market bottom was mid 2022 and the market is setting itself up for the next BULL run!

I just dont see where this crash is gonna come from. JJ has hiked nearly 5% and it hasnt happened, why would another 50 basis points cause it??