LIN 2.20% 9.3¢ lindian resources limited

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  1. 848 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 2990
    Yer totally agree with you on the 230 USD / Kg scenario. I certainly have not bought in on that price expectation. I expect some upside on where prices are currently but to me that would all be bonus. My point was that sometimes NPV analysis which gives you one number at the end after lots of assumptions, really doesnt fully describe or explain the advantages the project has.

    This project can do very well on very realistic price expectations that was modelled by Euroz and given it will be relatively low capex and the bundled mining license means it will be cashflow positive sooner than later and will minimize on shareholder dilution and lowers the project risk significantly.

    Plus you have a ceo smart enough to see a staged approach can unlock a lot of shareholder value which isnt captured in an npv analysis and isnt mucking with the intent to doing years and years of analysis ( and even drilling beyond some point just for the sake of it) that after some point is only telling you want is common sense, you have a viable project that doesnt require massive capex to get up and going. So the CEO's strategy of going straight to building out a demo plant is very sound and smart to me.

    The other thing one needs to bear in mind with the move up to 1500 Mtpa processing is that at that stage Malawi govt will likely reclassify the mining license required and they will have the option , which they will likely take up in my view, of acquiring 10 % of the project. This doesn't undermine the numbers at all even with the conservative Euroz numbers. The sovereign risk with malawi remains the biggest risk for me but if the malawi government are genuine about developing this resource for the long term and are happy to limit their takeup to 10 % of the project, I would almost argue that is a fair giveaway to get jurisdictional certainty and regulatory approval for the larger scale plant and this shouldn't discourage investors taking on the full build out of the plant.
 
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9.3¢ 9.3¢ 9.3¢ $11.16K 120K

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9.7¢ 54205 2
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