This is correct, MIN definitely won't go over the 20% threshold because in a contested situation IGO will certainly be in ASIC and the Takeovers Panels ear straight away.
Also, the creep provisions can't be used in this context, MIN can only creep over 20% 6 months after reaching 20%, so they won't have over a 20% interest.
Realistically, they don't need over 20% as that will certainly be enough to block the scheme of arrangement, and they can then launch their own offer.
This is another example of why scheme of arrangements (like IGO's) aren't effective in contested situations. IGO couldn't really buy shares ahead of the scheme vote, because they are not allowed to vote themselves, and the more shares they take out of the voting process the more difficult it is to achieve the required thresholds to pass the vote.
They left the door open for MIN to get themselves a blocking stake and launch a takeover offer, which we now know is exactly what happened.
Now IGO can't get a scheme vote to pass without MIN accepting, which they obviously won't do unless its at a huge premium, and IGO can't offer scrip unless they want MIN (a competitor) on their register.
IGO have backed themselves into a corner where their only way out is to switch to a cash takeover offer or walk away. Huge strategic error when MIN was an obvious option to be a competing bidder. IGO should have built themselves a 20% stake at 30c and then gone for a takeover offer in the first place.
This is exactly how the Warrego offer played out. Beach Energy had a recommended scheme and lost out to Hancock who made a cash takeover offer right before the scheme vote.
Lets hope this continues to play out like Warrego, and we get a bidding war that gets us a way better result than 50c per share.
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