Liberals suffer broken heartland as Labor marches in: Newspoll
10:00PM APRIL 14, 2023
The nation’s mortgage-belt heartland has shifted its political allegiances to Labor, with the Albanese government now dominating critical electoral territory in what was once regarded as the key constituency of the Liberal Party.
The Coalition is also facing a crisis of support among younger voters with 18 to 34-year-olds for the first time backing the Greens ahead of the Liberal-Nationals.
The danger signs for the Coalition across key demographics, following its defeat in the Aston by-election a fortnight ago, come as a state-by-state investigation into the Liberal Party’s state divisions by The Weekend Australian shows it in organisational decline across most state branches.
Exclusive Newspoll analysis conducted for the Australian shows the Coalition support base narrowing further since the last election, with over 65-year-olds, retirees, higher-income households and Christian voters now the only demographic groups through which it still holds a lead over Labor.
The quarterly analysis shows the Coalition failing to win back the mortgage belt amid the cost-of-living crunch with those facing rising home-loan repayments strongly backing Labor over the Liberal-Nationals parties.
While homeowners without a mortgage favoured the Coalition 46 per cent to 31 per cent, those still paying off their homes were now strongly backing Labor.
Among those voters identifying as having a mortgage, 41 per cent say they would vote Labor ahead of 33 per cent supporting the Coalition.
This gives Labor a 56-44 per cent two-party-preferred vote lead over the Coalition among these voters.
But it is among younger voters that the contrast is now at its most stark, with Labor leading 69-31 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis in a demographic that makes up more than a quarter of all voters.
The primary vote for the Liberal-Nationals among 18 to 34-year-olds has fallen three points over the past six months, with only 21 per cent now saying they supported the conservative Coalition parties.
The primary vote for the Greens among this group is at 24 per cent by comparison, marking the first time in Newspoll analysis that the minor left-wing party is ahead of the Coalition.
This has grown from 17 per cent since before the last election to remain steady at 24 per cent for the past year.
At the same time, Labor has increased its dominance among this group of voters since the election, with a primary vote of 43 per cent – more than double that of the Coalition.
Liberal Party elders are split over the challenges facing the party, with some calling for the party to seize back the economic argument, while others argue it would eventually swing back in the Coalition’s favour.
Former Liberal Party federal president Richard Alston said the party was losing the politics and needed to target more aggressively aspirational and young voters.
“We need to target the aspirational classes and that should include young people,” Mr Alston said.
“Part of the reason we don’t seem to succeed, you need to be out having a crack every day, we lose on politics as much as we lose on policy.
“The aspirational values are timeless and you have to create a sense of economic uncertainty. The economy is in trouble and we are living beyond our means.
“Voters are up for grabs, they live their lives worrying about jobs, incomes, families and mortgages and that needs to be the home ground for us.
“We have to create an awareness that the economy is going in the wrong direction.
“We have to create a sense among younger people that times are tough and you need to be serious about the economy and that’s not going to be solved by Labor.
“Why have we been in government for two-thirds of the time since the Second World War? These are timeless values, that’s what the battlers were about, that’s what the tradies were about.”
Former Liberal prime minister John Howard cautioned against concluding that the problems represented a deeper trend.
Mr Howard, the country’s second-longest-serving prime minister after Robert Menzies said mortgage-belt voters were particularly reactive to changes in their circumstances such as cost-of-living increases and it was not surprising that they were more likely to support Labor at the moment.
“But if you did the same breakdown in a year’s time I think you’d find there would be less support for Labor,” he said.
“I don’t think it means that the country has changed or anything like that. I’d say it is the normal ebb and flow.
“Whenever you are behind, you have to reach out to younger voters because they are more volatile.
“The older you get the less volatile you become in your voting habits. I don’t think it represents some deep trend.”
The demographic and state-by-state breakdown, contained in a quarterly analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted since the beginning of the year, shows that Victoria remains the key problem state for the Coalition, with Labor now leading by an eight-point primary vote margin, 41 per cent to 33 per cent.
This represented a four-point gain in primary support for Labor since the previous quarterly survey published in December.
On a two-party-preferred basis, this equates to a 58-42 lead for Labor in Victoria, assisted by preferences from the Greens and low voter support for right-wing minor parties.
The gain marks a three-point swing toward Labor since last May’s election and if repeated at the next election would risk the loss of a further four seats for the Coalition.
After Victoria, the Coalition’s second problem state is Western Australia where Labor has also made up ground since the last election, with a two-point widening of the primary vote gap to seven points: 40 per cent Labor, 33 per cent Coalition.
The Coalition has also gone backwards in Queensland, although it remains the opposition’s strongest state and the only one in which the Coalition still holds a lead over Labor at 39 per cent to 33 per cent.
The only mainland state where Labor lost support was in South Australia where its primary vote dropped from 40 per cent to 38 per cent, with the Coalition remaining steady on 35 per cent.
The electoral landscape remained unchanged in NSW where Labor holds a three-point primary vote margin of 38 per cent to 35 per cent.
“It’s clear where the problems lie,” a senior Liberal figure said.
“How many ways can you say; ‘we are in trouble’. This will just re-enforce Anthony Albanese’s view that the Liberal Party is in crisis and that Labor has a unique opportunity. That their opponents are particularly weak and if they play the game correctly, they could actually increase their majority.
“Normally, the (Liberal) state divisions would do something … but they have no capacity to do it, and this is compounding the problem.”
Despite the trends toward Labor in most states and across key demographics, the Coalition gained ground among those with a household income of more than $150,000.
The Coalition also has slightly improved its standing with women voters, who are now equally likely to vote conservative as men at 34 per cent.
The gender gap has become less apparent since the defeat of the Morrison government with Labor leading the Coalition by only two points when it comes to women voters. It is among men that Labor is more popular, with a 39 per cent to 36 per cent split.
This represents a fall of two points for Labor among women voters and a two point rise among male voters.
The accepted view that Mr Dutton was more unpopular in Victoria than elsewhere, was not borne out by the survey results. The Opposition Leader’s approval rating in the southern state is ahead of his ratings in both Western Australia and South Australia, and just four points behind that of NSW.
When it came to the performance of leaders, Mr Dutton’s approval rating was higher among younger voters than it was among 55 to 64-year-olds, suggesting the party brand was a primary driver of dissatisfaction among younger voters rather than Mr Dutton as leader.
However, his disapproval rating more broadly was particularly high among male voters.
The quarterly analysis was based on Newspoll surveys of 4756 voters across all states and territories between February 1 and April 3. Individual state samples ranged from 362 to 1414 voters.
That article is from the Australian by the way 14/04/2023
