woeful tuesday, page-97

Orchidc

I guess I should save explanations so I can just repost without having to retype.

The basic premise of mine is that SPI futures are always wrong and have been since 1983 when they started.

Really, anyone trading needs as much past data as they can get and study it or else you are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

Anyway I digress, the point is that SPI futures are always wrong, either in the short term or long term, but you need to understand the subtleties.

In the short term, a one day big change is just an opportunity to bet against the SPI. Like the 22 pt premium at Monday's close

In the longer term, you need to understand when a premium or discount is normal.

A decline with premiums won't end till we see discounts and vice versa.

But that doesn't mean discounts mean an imminent reversal and vice versa.

It comes down to the size of premium or discount.

I won't post a chart now but better you obtain and study the history and you will gain greater understanding.