Ann: a2MC completes on-market share buyback, page-93

Bellamy's also severely stuffed themselves with mismanagement well prior to that.

A2 had mismanagement issues for sure, but nothing as bad as BAL where they managed to stuff up the daigou trade at a time when it was really taking off (as opposed to when it was collapsing due to COVID in A2's case). Consequently it left them even more vulnerable to a lack of SAMR registration. BAL could have been as big as A2M.

From time to time people have put forward the theory about China deliberately withholding SAMR but it doesn't really add up in the A2M case since several Chinese state entities stand to benefit from A2M's success. What is almost certainly true is that there is a pecking order (in the Chinese authorities' eyes), and a mid sized IF company like A2M still has to wait in line behind larger domestic and multinational players.

You can look at SAMR as a barrier to trade but I see it more as gatekeeping. It will reinforce the advantage of the bigger players (domestic OR foreign) and allow them to seize even more market share from the little guys who get shut out. Even when relations were at their worst, China has never looked like going anywhere near putting trade restrictions on dairy imports from Australia or NZ. It is just too politically sensitive for them to risk backlash from the same demographic they need to keep having babies.