The global and country
website rank for The Healthy Mummy (THM) is slightly down for May 2022 v April 2022, but the
overall traffic numbers are holding up well at 258K visits globally across mobile and desktop (see below). The Australian winter is traditionally the lowest point in the business cycle for The Healthy Mummy (people particularly want to get in shape during summer!) so I'm ok with this progress from the team. I'm looking forward to seeing how the June and July website visitor numbers turn out. Moreover, I'm most interested in seeing the THM financials (revenue, EBITDA and CF) in the next quarterly report (4c), which is due to be released at the end of July (for the 3 months ending 30th June 2022).
At a $22m market cap, I can only assume that the market expects that the upcoming financial year (FY23) will present another loss. Personally, I believe the odds of a bottom-line profit for FY23 to be reasonable... therein lies the opportunity. THM is set to deliver somewhere between $5m and $6.5m AUD in normalised EBITDA for FY23 based on guidance. HLF will have some integration costs in this next quarter, but I'm not expecting D&A to be material for THM over the year. Thus, there is a reasonable chance that THM's EBITDA for FY23 will drop down to EBIT. Nothing is guaranteed here. But, I think this is a (very) asymmetric bet at a 6c share price. In an uncertain world and when investing, that's all you can ask. There's no such thing as a sure thing, but you want the odds in your favour. EBIT of just $4m AUD puts HLF on an EV/EBIT multiple of 8x at the current price.
(20min delay)