Hi Guys,
Why only 20 or 30% pa?
My back of a fag packet calculation based on EPS * 17 (normal ASX PER) gives a price of about $8 at the end of '05. Allow for the fact that they are still on a massive upward growth line and trading well ahead of the normal PER and $10+ at end of '05 is entirely beleivable. I wouldn't be surprised at $15 and $20+ by the end of '06. You don't have to wait years and years for this.
I would appreciate anyone with more financial smarts than I to make the same calculation based on the 15 cameras a month for the forseable future and come up with a price for end of '05.
As well as all that, sometime next year the cash will be rolling in too fast for them to spend it usefully. Once a reserve is built in (and millions of options given to the insiders) they will have to start paying dividends.
A growth stock paying big dividends and in the ASX 200 will have to be sucked into the institutions to provide a solid support.
My guess is that there will have to be some sort of scrip when the share hits $5 - maybe 2 for 1 to put a bit of liquidity in the market.
Even theough they are at a high now I am going to double my holding and retire on this one.
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