As much as I’d like to see this happen, this won’t happen in coming weeks unless there was a takeover offer.
My guess is this price point ($13) would be more realistic once the following conditions were met:
- Sustained high prices without major elevation requiring government intervention
- DMO being passed through as projected, with forecast increases for FY24/25
- Reliability of power plants over winter
- Bottomline uptick for full year, ideally beating analyst expectation, demonstrating the bottom has been passed
- Forecast increases in FY24 bottomline
- Origin deal approved and Origin off market leading to institutional $$ being cycled to AGL
- Dividend payout not being materially affected by future renewable investment strategy
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