Lithium Related Media Articles, page-16412

Your a bit like me so I will repeat what I have been saying around lithium supply and demand. I am taking a mish mash of comments I have made on demand-supply and just putting them here again, hence why the post looks a little disjointed for others. If people have read my posts before, don't bother reading the below. By the way, @anatol, this post is not directed at good self but those who need to understand what is the impending shortfall. Also very happy for you in your conviction on LTR in the past and the rewards you are reaping. All the best with it all.

The story is shortfall in supply with IMO have some blips along the way as supply comes onstream but demand the way it is heading will constantly outstrip supply for a while yet. Yes you may find for a month or two as each new mine comes into production - as mines come in in a lump sum as against meeting incremental demand - there might be a very temporary supply overhang which will disappear constantly very very quickly because demand is hungry here for EVs - a few months at the most - meaning prices stabilise and rise as demand again overtakes supply on a month to month basis. Demand shortages lead to price rises, or at least stabilisation in prices which means at this stage prices will continue to be well above what most put into their DFS a few years back as the average spodumene price. So to extract some various posts here goes:

EVs to lithium need

On demand supply: the table below I did in a graphite stock and maps EV vehicles to needed Li supply.


Note: Monohydrate has Li of about 16.5%, whereas carbonate is 18.8%.

Translating above to number of mines

1. This post explains conversions -Post #:50071578
2. This post explains how much lithium is in a battery -Post #:40855132
3. A lot of the lithium data when reporting batteries component parts in EV is in metal equivalent terms . A lot confuse this 7kg - 10kg reporting with some lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) (or even spodumene feedstock) - it is not, it is reported in lithium metal terms.
4. There is 5.3 tonnes of LCE to produce 1 tonne lithium metal assuming 100% recovery rate. Recovery is probably closer to 90% but I haven't found data, nor tried to work it out myself to date, but doesn't detract from the below.
5. You need 7.5 tonnes of 6% grade spodumene feedstock to produce 1 tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent - at a 90% recovery rate which is the generally reported rate (though 85% has been reported as well, making it 8 tonnes spodumene feedstock required then).
6.LCE kg needs in batteries for passenger vehicles is some 0.9 kg per kWh - this is above the theoretical efficiency if achieved
7. 7 kg lithium metal is equivalent to a battery size in EVs of 41kWh (7 * 5.3)/0.9, whilst 10kg is equivalent to a battery size of 59kWh. So that gives the gauge of what is reported as it does align with the kWh battery kWh generally reported for EVs
8At 6% grade spodumene Li content is 2.78%, LCE is 18.8Li

This post gives lithium demand and how it translates to number of 6% grade spodumene mine equivalence (converting brine/hardrock to spodumene basis) -Post #:65817444Just taking an example from the embedded post of 5000 GWh from the embedded post, you can see the number of mines needed, noting it will be far more than this because the majority of mines will not achieve 80% recovery an some certainly won't be able to serve the hydroxide market -Post #:66338596



Lepidolite is not preferred

Agree ESG is poor and costly to convert and spodumene is preferred. Lepidolite refining practices are less developed than those associated with spodumene - i.e. just have to look at patent applications to see that.
Another way to put it, if your deposit is 1% Li20, and LTR's grade is much higher by teh way obviously but seeking to make a point here, you would want it to be spodumene, but if you had two deposits, one been 1% Li20 spodumene and the other one been 2% lepidolite, well what would you prefer, if the spodumene one had Fe203 of say 0.5%, and the lepidolite one was 1% Fe203? You might find little processing difference in cumulatative Fe203 - as they both have cumulatative Fe203 count of 3.75%. It is why grade is a key for lepidolite deposits and low grade one are a real problem in processing and cost IMO, and obviously understanding the deleterious element count is a key. Note - this is an example to repeat, as there are other types of deleterious elements to deal with, and they are higher in lepidolite generally.

When talking deleterious elements there are three main types you don't want - phosphorous (P), fluorine (F) and Fe (iron) especially. These are essentially your penalty elements in concentrate pricing.When one talks mica as well, the key thing you are really focussing on is fluorine and iron, because fluorine and iron is an element of mica. The other is magnesium (Mg), potassium (K) and calcium (Ca). Most converters operate on the assumption of recovering 85% - 90% of the lithium concentrate in the 6% grade concentrate exported, when converting to say carbonate/hydroxide for example. Now, high deleterious impurities means that these impurities, if not removed in the 6% concentrate making process adequately to meet sales specs, stick at high enough concentrations in the 1050 degrees roasting process meaning they form clinkers and therefore in their removal you end up losing more lithium in dpwnstraem converters, and this is why downstraem converters (those producing lithium carbonate of lithium hydroxide monohydrate) would penalise sales not at right specs for example and/or pay a premium for concentrate products with very good deleterious specifications. This article explains the concept of clinkers in more detail:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/all-chemical-grade-spodumene-concentrates-same-harman-grant/

Lepidolite has far more and higher deleterious elements to deal with.

For those interested:
1. Background reading on EV batteries and number of new lithium mines required -Post #:646119872. Spodumene formula -Spodumene Mineral Data (webmineral.com)
3. Lepidolite formula - seeLepidolite Mineral Data (webmineral.com)andMolecular weight of KLi2AlSi4O10F(OH) (convertunits.com)- it is obvious the chemical composition of lepidolite means you have more deleterious elements to deal with, hence why grade is the key and how easy it is to liberate the lithium from the lattice of the ore.


Improving battery efficiency
A key area where I think battery improvements are going to happen is in increasing battery efficiency towards the theoretical efficiency of the battery potential - and that will help keeping spodumene prices well above current DFS views for spodumene for a very long time IMO. Currently LCE need in batteries is more than two times theoretical efficiency. Efficiency improvements will bring done the cost of EVs IMO, and that is where high prices may be able to stay. And that is also why early movers like PLS especially, and now LTR are going to benefit very very well long term IMO - on theoretical efficiency referhttps://hotcopper.com.au/posts/66633823/single

All IMO