● MDMA-Assisted Psychotherapy is expected to cost ~$15-20k AUD per 3-month course of treatment, however, drug costs are anticipated to represent only ~$1500 of the total costs. ● Psilocybin Therapy is likely to cost ~$5K per 3-day course of treatment, with treatments recurring at 3 or 6-month intervals. Drug costs per treatment are not expected to exceed $500. ● It is highly likely that therapy components will be reimbursable by numerous entities, while drug costs are likely to remain out-of-pocket for the foreseeable future. ● As additional competitors enter the Commercial market with viable drug products, PharmAla anticipates price compression of 50% per annum for the period 2023-26. PharmAla also anticipates significant cost reductions in the manufacture of its drug products, allowing absorption of price compression without a significant effect on profitability.
Approximately 250,000-500,000 individuals are diagnosed with PTSD in Australia on an annual basis; In 2021, 1.45m Australians were diagnosed as having PTSD.1 Assuming a conservative 50% takeup rate of MDMA-assisted psychotherapy treatments, we assess an initial market of ~700,000 patients in Year 1, and ~150,000 patients on an ongoing annual basis.
● Approximately 1.17m Australians suffer from Depressive Episodes as of 2021.1 Assuming a higher 65% takeup rate of Psilocybin Therapy due to lower therapist costs, we assess an initial market of ~750,000 patients and an annual patient market of~150,000 patients.
● The major rate-limiting factor affecting the number of patients that can be treated under the July 1 TGA guidance will be the number of authorized prescribers at any given time. However, each authorized prescriber represents a significant number of additional patients, as prescribers can be supported by additional therapists to execute treatments.
