I don't wish to be misconstrued so I will stress from the outset that this is MY RECOLLECTION of what JH presented and said to me after the presentation,and MY INTREPRETATION of what was discussed. I did not take notes. Obviously, JH has an obligation to inform the market of anything relevant.
It appears the problem with the JV partners stems from BG inheriting a farmin agreement they weren't involved in and probably would not have gotten involved in except they were committed through their takeover of PXA. It would not be surprising if ultimately, they walked away from the JV and that would probably be best for all concerned.
Given the uncertainty caused by the JV argy-bargy, JH thought it best to go back to the shareholders with the recent CR to raise sufficient funds for the drill program. He is acutely aware that many shareholders have extremely high expectations and CTP while sitting on a lot of potential, will always lack credibility with the market until they start kicking goals and proving their resources.
His priority is to start generating cashflow for the company.
He did discuss the coal reserves at length during the presentation. He believes that there is great potential for mining the coal and processing it in situ to produce diesel etc. to generate cashflow. Certainly his views of the value of the coal reserves to the company are opposite to a lot of the posts I read a few weeks back on HC dismissing it as worthless.
Forget talking about a SP of $10 for the forseeable future, however a SP of $1+ is not an unreasonable estimate in the short term. I am very, very confident of this being achieved in the near future.
In short, I am very comfortable and confident in CTP's direction and prospects. I have topped up since the presentation.
Finally, and a little off the topic of JH's presentation, I am in this stock because based on all the available information, I believe this has outstanding potential to really make me some $$$. I thought I'd include an article from The Age newspaper written by Marcus Purday which really puts things into perspective. I think CTP could potentially be another one of these companies. but of course DYOR and don't rely on anything I say.
Dare to ask the stupid question and try for a 10,000% return MARCUS PADLEY August 29, 2009 GOT an email this week. I ask for stupid questions in my newsletter and I get them. "I have $10,000 and want to turn it into a million dollars. How do I do it?"
You're thinking "How stupid" but it's actually a really good question. So, let's try to answer it.
First thing to do is to accept that you will not achieve this goal without being prepared to lose all your money. You will not achieve it in the bank, in cash, in property or in managed funds. There is no ''average'' return in any asset class that will suit you. You need to win Tattslotto or win at long odds with the bookies. Advertisement: Story continues below
Outside that you have two options: build a business - the most sensible option and the real answer to the question; or the sharemarket. The sharemarket seems to be less effort, so let's look at that.
In the sharemarket you will not do achieve your goal through diversification. A ''portfolio'' is not for you. You must do one of two things. One is to find one fantastic ''rocket under a rock'' stock and ride it to a million. The other is to get a lot of stocks right consistently over a long time; in other words, develop a trading system and build the capital by consistently successful trading over a long, long period.
If you are going to build a trading system, you have to get your head in the trading game. That means learning how to trade and buying the software to do it.
If you are going to do it in one stock, here are a few numbers. To turn $10,000 into $1 million, you need a stock that goes up a hundredfold. That's a 10,000 per cent return.
In the All Ords (about 500 stocks) at this moment, there are exactly 60 stocks that have in their trading histories, if you timed it perfectly from all-time low to all-time high, returned more than 10,000 per cent. That's a lot better odds than you might imagine. That's 12 per cent of stocks. Here are some of the highlights:
Biggest and fastest rises in history:
■Fortescue Metals. Turned $10,000 into $73,166,166 between September 1990 and June 2008: 17.8 years. This is the biggest single return of any stock over any period in the All Ords.
■UXC. The fastest of all. Turned $10,000 into $6 million between June 1998 and March 2000 in the Tech boom (it was called Davnet at the time): 1.8 years.
■Paladin. Turned $10,000 into $13.5 million between April 2003 and April 2007: four years. Third-biggest return and third fastest.
Other stocks that have done remarkable things with $10,000 include News Corp, which turned it into $26,692,393 in 25.4 years; BHP $2,543,468 in 42.2 years; QBE $12,165,775 in 32.7 years. Others that have achieved it include ANZ, Rio Tinto, Woodside, Origin, Santos, Leighton Holdings, Coca-Cola Amatil and Lend Lease.
So it is possible; but it will not be easy and it could take 42 years. And, I ask, how on earth are you going to stop yourself selling when you have doubled your money to $20,000. And what are you going to do when it falls on day one. And the big one: which stock will you start with?
I have written before about how pitiful the real average return from the sharemarket is after tax, inflation, transaction costs, management costs and the index fudge. And, because of that, the sharemarket is not about averages and diversification; it is about timing and buying stocks that go up.
The pursuit of $1 million with $10,000, as unrealistic as it is, is the essence of what this game and the advice game is all about. It's not about pretending to be a fund manager, hiding in the average and relying on the long term. There are no free lunches. It's about finding stocks that go up and avoiding stocks that go down. It's about thinking it's possible and applying yourself to the task. Even if you come up 9900 per cent short, you've still doubled your money.
Marcus Padley is a stockbroker with Patersons Securities and the author of the daily sharemarket newsletter Marcus Today.
www.marcustoday.com.au
CTP Price at posting:
37.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)