TER - General Discussion / Market Updates, page-34

TER quarterly out today. Put the new production numbers in my model. Below are the results


This is looking at the equity interest of the production numbers, not the gross production. Production trending downward but the proportional mix is stable.
Majority of the downward trend is coming from the Australian mine (of which there is only one).

The South Africa operations have been maintaining their costs while the Australian mine costs have had a delayed increase over the last couple of quarters.


I've calculated NOPAT margins for the last couple of quarters has been between 26% - 35%. Without knowing the exact number for this quarter, I've assumed a 30% NOPAT margin for the quarter. Estimating NOPAT of $54m for the quarter. Last couple of quarters the payout ratio was stated by TER as 77%.
Assuming roughly the same at 75% payout ratio, this translates to a 5cents per share dividend estimate (paying out $40m). However, they have much more cash on hand in the restricted vs unrestricted split.


Even at a 5cents a share div, the yield is still decent at $0.65 share price. I averaged down.