Let's cut through the cr*p and company communications dress-ups.
I did a simple formula last quarter to calculate Net Cash Value of the company:
Total Equity = $26,834,483
plus
Borrowings = $33,285,000
less
Cash on Hand = $24,968,832
leaves
Net Cash Advances Outstanding = $35,150,651
Net Cash Advances Outstanding minus Cash on Hand = Net Cash Value (NCV)
NCV = $10,181,819 (vs $10,600,000 last quarter...i.e. NCV has gone down QoQ)
All of the other numbers are operational performance indicators (active users, NTM, NTL etc) whereas NCV is what the company is currently worth, multiplied by whatever multiple you think is reasonable. If you really want to value this thing, NCV is the number to focus on, in my opinion.
I give the multiple no more than 1.5x NCV (including data and technology value) so a reasonable enterprise value is about $15M AUD...at present.
Would be interested to know if anyone has another opinion on valuation method or multiple of NCV. Maybe there is some additional technology value and / or customer data value to add in. I think customer data wouldn't be worth much...who wants to market goods and services to people who can't make ends meet? Technology value is worth a bit, but I don't think this tech is difficult or expensive to replicate in any way.
When I see NCV moving north at a rapid rate, I'll buy. This company is not an investor's play right now, it's a trader's play only.
Cheers,
Jim
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