The attack was real enough. I think in the pattern of journalist and blogger assasination in Russia and other similar drone attacks in Russia launched by Ukraine its most likely Ukraine this time but there is always chance of it being a false flag. Someone can no doubt identify the drone type from the footage.
Either way as you say Russia will likely launch some retribution missile attack on targets in Kiev.
De-escalation and talks look like a good idea in March 2022. Where does escalation end? With Biden at the helm who knows which war monger is really in charge.