LYC (ASX) Ann: Becoming a substantial holder

Originally posted by Herbiejohnster66: ↑
State Street are big on loaning out shares to the shorters. They muddy the waters by not providing total number of shares held on 19th April when they went under 5% but provide the number for 2nd May when they went over 5%
6.5 million to go under 5% so if 7 to 10 Million shorts returned they would likely go back over the 5%
From the bottom workings over 34 million shares were returned nett to those loaning them out.

Following are order of magnitude numbers from Annexure A

Rough numbers from Annexure A have SS buying 16.5 Million. Normally there would be sales but not on this report which is a positive sign.
Similarly in the order of 5.8 million shorts were returned. Normally there would be negative numbers where shares were lent out but not on this report which is another positive sign.
2-May-23 47,426,337 0.058

19-Apr-23 40,884,773 0.05%

6,541,564

In the order of 7 to 10 million required to bring back up to 5.8%

This is an analysis of the shorts. Overall shorts are rising but SS is not the lender nor seller of these shorts over the past fortnight. This is a positive sign but they are only one shark in the pond.
Date Daily Volume Daily Gross
Short Sales DGSS
% of Volume Aggregate
Gross Shorts
4 days behind trading AGS
% of SOI AGS
Change Shorters returning or Loaning Shorts Buying/
loaning as a % of Volume SP Close https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/markets/short-selling/short-position-reports-table/

RSI 5 day daily

22/03/2023 6,546,258
20,766,000 0.0222 - $6.500 31.6 Under 35 weak RSI swing traders buy at this level and resell higher

23/03/2023 10,919,490 1,199,832 0.11 20,089,107 0.0215 -676,893 1,876,725 0.172 $6.290 29 Shorters retuning is negative which means that more shares have been borrowed for short selling but not sold yet.

24/03/2023 4,388,097 390,351 0.09 19,304,481 0.0207 -784,626 1,174,977 0.268 $6.330 30.3

27/03/2023 3,195,033 642,999 0.20 19,359,612 0.0207 55,131 587,868 0.184 $6.360 31.2

28/03/2023 5,315,372 1,345,521 0.25 20,145,782 0.0216 786,170 559,351 0.105 $6.530 36.2

29/03/2023 5,865,165 2,273,403 0.39 21,201,408 0.0227 1,055,626 1,217,777 0.208 $6.340 34.8

30/03/2023 6,052,914 739,233 0.12 19,948,279 0.0214 -1,253,129 1,992,362 0.329 $6.340 33.7

31/03/2023 4,702,097 812,514 0.17 19,554,721 0.0209 -393,558 1,206,072 0.256 $6.340 33.3

3/04/2023 5,318,234 811,600 0.15 20,476,328 0.0219 921,607 -110,007 -0.021 $6.620 41.8 Shorters borrowing/selling into the rise in share price 10 Day Average
4/04/2023 6,243,986 960,345 0.15 21,900,966 0.0235 1,424,638 -464,293 -0.074 $6.520 39.9 Shorters borrowing/selling into the rise in share price Vol Daily Short Gross Price
5/04/2023 8,940,343 1,119,928 0.13 22,987,650 0.0246 1,086,684 33,244 0.004 $6.210 34.5
6,094,073 1,029,573 20,496,833 6.388
6/04/2023 7,936,836 891,750 0.11 21,730,121 0.0233 -1,257,529 2,149,279 0.271 $6.035 31.83
5,795,808 998,764 20,660,935 6.363
11/04/2023 4,924,253 389,620 0.08 21,726,140 0.0233 -3,981 393,601 0.080 $6.29 38.84
5,849,423 998,691 20,903,101 6.359
12/04/2023 4,815,377 417,135 0.09 22,391,386 0.0240 665,246 -248,111 -0.052 $6.37 41.01
6,011,458 976,105 21,206,278 6.360
13/04/2023 5,567,999 875,325 0.16 22,859,968 0.0245 468,582 406,743 $6.40 41.85
6,036,720 929,085 21,477,697 6.347
14/04/2023 4,937,669 790,506 0.16 23,643,323 0.0253 783,355 7,151 $6.59 46.96
5,943,971 780,796 21,721,888 6.372
17/04/2023 4,496,088 627,003 0.14 24,956,668 0.0267 1,313,345 -686,342 $6.72 50.18
5,788,288 769,573 22,222,727 6.410
18/04/2023 5,781,878 1,280,954 0.22 26,177,986 0.0280 1,221,318 59,636 $6.77 51.41
5,896,266 816,417 22,885,054 6.453
19/04/2023 3,722,773 1,154,437 0.31 26,606,091 0.0285 428,105 726,332 $6.76 51.14
5,736,720 850,700 23,498,030 6.467
20/04/2023 4,948,352 499,325 0.10 25,821,804 0.0277 -784,287 1,283,612 $6.53 45.24
5,607,157 804,598 23,890,114 6.468
21/04/2023 11,770,450 1,089,190 0.09 26,597,020 0.0285 775,216 313,974 $6.84 53.09 Quarterly released 5,890,168 801,525 24,251,051 6.531
24/04/2023 5,544,293 550,105 0.10 27,975,064 0.0300 1,378,044 -827,939 $6.72 50.1
5,650,913 767,360 24,875,545 6.599
26/04/2023 8,059,315 1,042,660 0.13 28,753,649 778,585 264,075 $6.66 48.62
5,964,419 832,664 25,578,296 6.636
27/04/2023 5,725,861 1,962,262 0.34 29,443,139 689,490 1,272,772 $6.49 44.61
6,055,468 987,177 26,283,471 6.648
28/04/2023 4,266,346 501,609 0.12 29,640,389 197,250 304,359 $6.43 43.25
5,925,303 949,805 26,961,513 6.651
1/05/2023 3,003,783 336,095 0.11 -29,640,389 29,976,484 $6.42 42.03

2/05/2023 5,086,461 1,116,083 0.22 0 1,116,083 $6.34 41.09

3/05/2023 3,834,240 573,979 0.15 0 573,979 $6.29 39.89

4/05/2023 3,008,017 0.00 0 - $6.44 44.07

Expand
Note that the nett change in aggregate has increased by circa 3 million shares from 19 the April to 2nd May yet 34 million were returned so that means that 37 million shorts were sold short/borrowed. From this we can deduce some are shorting and some are covering and the nett difference is in favour of the shorters/borrowers by 3 million. I say shorters/ borrowers because when shares are borrowed they go to the aggregate though they may not be sold short on market. Murky stuff with smoke and mirrors.

I think some are betting Malaysia won't shut them down and some are betting they will.

I think that the damage to Malaysia's perceived sovereign risk and the knock on to investment will far outweigh the political points scored for being seen to be tough on Lynas. The irony is that there is an approved disposal facility in the works. Makes no sense in my mind.

I've held Lynas since 2012 and bought and sold numerous times. Looking to get back in. This is a great company and a no brainer in the medium term in my opinion.

Good luck to all holders.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
7	225	$8.88

No.

Vol.

Price($)

225

$8.88

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$8.91	24100	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$8.91

24100

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	2	8.880
1	80	8.850
1	508	8.830
1	675	8.820
6	3145	8.800

No.

Vol.

Price($)

8.880

8.850

508

8.830

675

8.820

3145

8.800

Price($)	Vol.	No.
8.930	200	1
8.950	200	1
8.960	650	1
8.990	164	1
9.020	1100	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

8.930

200

8.950

200

8.960

650

8.990

164

9.020

1100

(20min delay)
Last $8.88		Change -0.320(3.48%)		Mkt cap ! $8.306B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$9.44	$9.44	$8.86	$61.13M	6.800M

Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-5

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2-May-23	47,426,337	0.058
19-Apr-23	40,884,773	0.05%
	6,541,564

	In the order of 7 to 10 million required to bring back up to 5.8%

Date	Daily Volume	Daily Gross Short Sales	DGSS % of Volume	Aggregate Gross Shorts 4 days behind trading	AGS % of SOI	AGS Change	Shorters returning or Loaning	Shorts Buying/ loaning as a % of Volume	SP Close	https://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt	https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/markets/short-selling/short-position-reports-table/
										RSI 5 day daily
22/03/2023	6,546,258			20,766,000	0.0222		-		$6.500	31.6	Under 35 weak RSI swing traders buy at this level and resell higher
23/03/2023	10,919,490	1,199,832	0.11	20,089,107	0.0215	-676,893	1,876,725	0.172	$6.290	29	Shorters retuning is negative which means that more shares have been borrowed for short selling but not sold yet.
24/03/2023	4,388,097	390,351	0.09	19,304,481	0.0207	-784,626	1,174,977	0.268	$6.330	30.3
27/03/2023	3,195,033	642,999	0.20	19,359,612	0.0207	55,131	587,868	0.184	$6.360	31.2
28/03/2023	5,315,372	1,345,521	0.25	20,145,782	0.0216	786,170	559,351	0.105	$6.530	36.2
29/03/2023	5,865,165	2,273,403	0.39	21,201,408	0.0227	1,055,626	1,217,777	0.208	$6.340	34.8
30/03/2023	6,052,914	739,233	0.12	19,948,279	0.0214	-1,253,129	1,992,362	0.329	$6.340	33.7
31/03/2023	4,702,097	812,514	0.17	19,554,721	0.0209	-393,558	1,206,072	0.256	$6.340	33.3
3/04/2023	5,318,234	811,600	0.15	20,476,328	0.0219	921,607	-110,007	-0.021	$6.620	41.8	Shorters borrowing/selling into the rise in share price	10 Day Average
4/04/2023	6,243,986	960,345	0.15	21,900,966	0.0235	1,424,638	-464,293	-0.074	$6.520	39.9	Shorters borrowing/selling into the rise in share price	Vol	Daily Short	Gross	Price
5/04/2023	8,940,343	1,119,928	0.13	22,987,650	0.0246	1,086,684	33,244	0.004	$6.210	34.5		6,094,073	1,029,573	20,496,833	6.388
6/04/2023	7,936,836	891,750	0.11	21,730,121	0.0233	-1,257,529	2,149,279	0.271	$6.035	31.83		5,795,808	998,764	20,660,935	6.363
11/04/2023	4,924,253	389,620	0.08	21,726,140	0.0233	-3,981	393,601	0.080	$6.29	38.84		5,849,423	998,691	20,903,101	6.359
12/04/2023	4,815,377	417,135	0.09	22,391,386	0.0240	665,246	-248,111	-0.052	$6.37	41.01		6,011,458	976,105	21,206,278	6.360
13/04/2023	5,567,999	875,325	0.16	22,859,968	0.0245	468,582	406,743		$6.40	41.85		6,036,720	929,085	21,477,697	6.347
14/04/2023	4,937,669	790,506	0.16	23,643,323	0.0253	783,355	7,151		$6.59	46.96		5,943,971	780,796	21,721,888	6.372
17/04/2023	4,496,088	627,003	0.14	24,956,668	0.0267	1,313,345	-686,342		$6.72	50.18		5,788,288	769,573	22,222,727	6.410
18/04/2023	5,781,878	1,280,954	0.22	26,177,986	0.0280	1,221,318	59,636		$6.77	51.41		5,896,266	816,417	22,885,054	6.453
19/04/2023	3,722,773	1,154,437	0.31	26,606,091	0.0285	428,105	726,332		$6.76	51.14		5,736,720	850,700	23,498,030	6.467
20/04/2023	4,948,352	499,325	0.10	25,821,804	0.0277	-784,287	1,283,612		$6.53	45.24		5,607,157	804,598	23,890,114	6.468
21/04/2023	11,770,450	1,089,190	0.09	26,597,020	0.0285	775,216	313,974		$6.84	53.09	Quarterly released	5,890,168	801,525	24,251,051	6.531
24/04/2023	5,544,293	550,105	0.10	27,975,064	0.0300	1,378,044	-827,939		$6.72	50.1		5,650,913	767,360	24,875,545	6.599
26/04/2023	8,059,315	1,042,660	0.13	28,753,649		778,585	264,075		$6.66	48.62		5,964,419	832,664	25,578,296	6.636
27/04/2023	5,725,861	1,962,262	0.34	29,443,139		689,490	1,272,772		$6.49	44.61		6,055,468	987,177	26,283,471	6.648
28/04/2023	4,266,346	501,609	0.12	29,640,389		197,250	304,359		$6.43	43.25		5,925,303	949,805	26,961,513	6.651
1/05/2023	3,003,783	336,095	0.11			-29,640,389	29,976,484		$6.42	42.03
2/05/2023	5,086,461	1,116,083	0.22			0	1,116,083		$6.34	41.09
3/05/2023	3,834,240	573,979	0.15			0	573,979		$6.29	39.89
4/05/2023	3,008,017		0.00			0	-		$6.44	44.07

Ann: Becoming a substantial holder, page-5

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