Hi Manny100
I am not agreeing with your reading of the weekly charts, but "to each his own".
In the chart below which covers 38 weeks only one weekly hi-lo candle traded entirely above the 10WMA (Dead Cat Bounce) out of the other 37 weeks only 15 managed to even touch the 10WMA. You can see that in Jan & Feb the MACD was just slightly positive which was a misguided buying indicator.
Last weeks MACD managed to get to neutral.
My reading of the current weekly chart is that it's been a falling knife for a long long time. I sold a small portion of my 6.6 cent shares at 1.63 14 months ago to free carry BRN. I have been waiting to top up since February but resisted trying to catch that falling knife. It was tempting in the 40s but no real signals. Then came high 30's and still watching.
Any news of some real serious income hitting the books in the coming two quarterly announcements could turn things around, but when your burning cash at the rate of 22m a year, this income would need to be over 10m in 6 months. I can't chart news.
I feel that a some time in the coming months we are almost due for another bounce, will it be another DCB? I will be looking for some signals, hopefully to give me some indication.
With the last DCB in the week 1 Jan 23 the FIB from 1.365 to 0.59 with the DCB climbing up to 0.88 to reach a perfect 38.2% upwards retracement level was for me was a DCB giveaway. After the SP passed below 0.59 the downward extention began. The SP has already passed below the 23.6% downward extention and then still moved further downwards.
My eventual top up will be split into two targets that I have my sights on. I don't pretend that I will pick the bottom of this long decline from 2.34. I will just be happy if I in the right region.
There is a real chance that the trend could change before my targets are reached (I will pick up what I can). There is also a real chance that after I get in the SP falls further. It won't worry me to much.
That's life in the markets.
To anyone getting in soon good luck. I have been in the markets so long that I realise that they don't always behave the way I planned. I don't mind just as long as I get it right more often than when I get it wrong.
Just the way I deal with the market so that I am not surprised by what plays out, as always DYOR
Good luck folks
cheers Lies
(20min delay)