Nice analysis guys. My two cents worth in comparing which company will make me better off as a SBM shareholder i.e. where I will get a better return over the next 2 to 5 years (and of course its only my view and not financial advice):
1. the industrial logic of the GMD offer is clear - Ulysses ore to Gwalia mill takes the pressure off the Gwalia u/g to allow quality mining and improved grades while adding the 80% interest in the Mt Morgan's mill to mine the bulk open pits like Tower Hill - is compelling
2. backsolving GMD current valuation is tricky and probably has some premium baked in for the team's track record - in effect getting paid before you do the job
3. SLR share price over the last 2 years is down 40% (in a strongly rising gold price) which doesn't fill me with confidence that I will be better off over the next 2 years if I back the steady as she goes option (especially given SLR has no synergies to Gwalia - except for Luke Tonkin having history as CEO of Sons of Gwalia - which by the way failed)
4. personally I would prefer the cash being offered (by both parties) - to be given to shareholders i.e. not given to SBM board and directors to continue throwing down holes in PNG and Canada. Lets put those assets into administration and distribute the remaining cents in the dollar to shareholders as well
So I am team GMD - I think backing a stellar management team with a demonstrated industrial logic will easily win the day for me as a shareholder
SBM Price at posting:
64.3¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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