Hi
@NBCI have to disagree with your scenario. Graincorp is a handler, primarily, although a trader as well, but most of the export shipments are NOT Graincorp trades, but the big players, Cargill, Glencore etc.
Also, even though there is more international wheat on the market, Australia is uniquely placed to sell to Asia, with reduced shipping costs as opposed ex Ukraine. So the price of grain is largely irrelevant. As one old timer said to me a few years back, Australia can sell every ear of wheat that is produced, people will always need to eat. So whilst Graincorp have the bigger grain export facilities (and associated infrastructure), they have further diversified these facilities - Portland & Geelong / Woodchip, Brisbane and Port Kembla / Cement. And i am certain it will not stop there.
As handlers, Graincorp are extremely well positioned.
So a couple of months ago, i stated that Graincorp was 10% undervalued, perhaps that was a little pessimistic.
(20min delay)