morgan the monster, page-37

Impact yes what your saying has some merit but i feel you have your NVP well numbers and % calcs wrong.

Very importantly im not limiting AUT to 120 wells. They will imo undoubtably go far beyond 120 wells, although that depends on whether we are talking 120 net (100%) wells or 10/25/30% WI in 120 wells.

9640 acres net at 640 is the requirment to keep leases = cost of 15 wells at 100% cost to AUT to retain acerages.

9640 acres at wells possibly down to 50 acre spaving = 192.8 wells at 100% interst to AUT x NPV $13m = $2.5B as absolute best case scenario. From one horizontal per well.

OR

50000gross acres at 50 acre spacing = 20% interest in 1000 wells. ??? many ways to skin a cat AUT preso is still saying 500 wells at 20%.

Page 24 using the NVP values your qupting has 400-650 wells. The 80-130 is for 100% interest. Yet you appear to be using the 10% NPV figures approx.

There is talk of fraccing two horizontals per well, with a later on directly into the Austin chalks once the eagleford is depleted in that case there is a possibility of $5B using the NPV method.

As you can see it really depends which apples your using.

I assume you using page 24 in which case the figures quoted you need to multiply by 400 to 650, not 80-130.

Also remmebr those fast drill and fract times and lower costs, plus potential higher flows like morgan have the potential to massively increase NPV.

I think you need to recheck your figures.

Mine are calculated on wells, BOCPD and mmCFGPD which allowss me to update as we go, which will automatically recalculate the NPV for individual monsters like morgan.

Happy to have mine picked to bits if ive got errors, but i think you need to recheck your numbers.