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From CNBC website

Gulf Spill Is 'Black Swan' Event: Industry Insider
Published: Wednesday, 9 Jun 2010

A top authority on oil reservoir management and upstream technology called the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico a "Black Swan" event that, however catastrophic, has the potential to improve drilling practices in particular and the industry in general.

The heart and soul of the whole issue is that this is a Black Swan event, Nansen Saleri, CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact and a former executive at Saudi Aramco, told CNBC Wednesday.

The whole industry missed the probability of such a traumatic event from happening. Now with the benefit of hindsight, its becoming very obvious that the safety systems in place and the contingency plans in place were not commensurate with the true risks. I think thats the most valuable lesson of the whole tragic event.

Saleri later said that its obvious that BP [BP 29.20 -5.4775 (-15.8%) ] had no emergency plan worked out beforehand and that the oil giant is improvising as it scrambles to deal with the leak and its many attendant problems.

I believe in the short term, this [oil spill] is a wake-up call for the whole industry, he added. In the long run, its going to lead to new foundational forms, which is going to invigorate the entire industry.

Saleri called the oil spill in 1969 in the Santa Barbara Channel off the coast of California the last major US production disaster. As a result, he explained, the United States made changes and, until the BP spill on April 20, had a stellar track record. Saleri did not mention the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989 off the coast of Alaska, which was due to a tanker crash.

He said the Obama administrations moratorium on deep-water oil drilling doesnt solve anything, but he thinks that common sense will prevail in that regard and that the United States will continue to be a viable oil producer.

To help solve the current problem, Saleri favors the appointment of an eminent scientist, who is nonpolitical.

I think its incumbent on our industry, my industry, to get to the bottom of it with scientific and moral diligence, he added, and understand the real reasons, fix it and move forward.