A surprisingly large amount rests on the exploratory drilling that is currently occurring as that will give Atlantic a sighter for how much further expansion there is beyond 35Mt. I thought there was a view perhaps 6mths back that noted 2-3x current was thought to be possible.
If Atlantic were to design and build to 3Mt DMS + 1Mt Flotation then they would either need to accept a declining life of mine or have confidence in being able to discover 4Mt of JORC each year. If they averaged 4Mt or more of JORC finds each year, they could mine for 10 years and still have a higher life of mine than when they started in the mid 2030's (the 4Mt above would be an 8yr life of mine). Whether Atlantic does go super-big may well depend on the answer Len Kolff gives when asked "how confident are you of finding additional JORC resources of 4Mt/yr or more if given a big exploration budget?"
Given current spod prices, priority #1 needs to be speed to market while designing in expansion potential. Incremental capacity can be added once in production and generating revenue and profits so a feasibility study of 2Mt DMS startup with 1Mt DMS to commission 1yr later and 1Mt Fines to commission 2yrs after startup would have a lot of appeal. The exploration budget would need to be increased so as to have confidence to FID the extra DMS around the same time as startup commissioning. The Ewoyaa project delivering LTR type volumes would be pretty special if it did happen.
A11 Price at posting:
61.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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