food for thought

there's been some occurrences with CFE as of late and maybe sellier or someone close to Tony could clarify.

CFE sells Lady Annie, $135 million in the bank and the share price doesn't move when in Feb the market valued CFE before they sold it at 63.5 cents. share price doesn't budge and infact goes down. I understand conditions are different to then, but this occurrence has got me stumped.

People are then saying the overhang from capital group is causing the increased sell side. They still have over 5%, so any movement in there holding would warrant an announcement (yet there has been no announcements bar the one in may.) so Capital group is not directly involved with this increased selling.

so this has given rise to my current speculative thoughts and please feel free to highlight any holes in my theory.

Tony was very aware that Lady Annie was almost 99% definitely going to be successfully sold to CST. And he stated before the IPO process that he would pay a dividend on successful sale. this was over 4 months ago.

so why then after successful sale does it take him over 2 weeks after the announcement and receiving cash to make an announcement regarding something he has had 4 months to prepare for. Tony is a smart man and we all know the div announcement would have been ready to be announced the day after the money was received. Got me buggered why he hasn't announced it, specially when the share price has been under heavy selling pressure.

CFE's large cash pile and lack of investor understanding has always led me to believe it would be a takeover target. But then when we brought Marampa off African Minerals for script giving Timis and sage the dynamic duo literal control with over 25% of the company. This thought vanished knowing that CFE is sages baby.

But then sellier who i regard very highly on this thread came out this week and said CFE is looking like it could be on someone's wish list. Might i add that everything sellier has predicted so far has come to fruition.

So therefore the funny stuff with the share registry and sages delay in his dividend announcement has led me to think;

It is evident that capital group want to get out they've made this obviouse, selling has been large as of late but their holdings aren't moving. there's also been noticeable BOT trading so whose selling?

My take is Capital group are aware of the company whose trying to take CFE over. they've borrowed their stock to them. and this company is short selling it through BOT trading but always buying it back at the lower price and slowly accumulating. obviously buying through multiple companies ensuring not to go over the 5% with anyone entity.

Sage is aware of this, knows the share price is being played with and has been approached about a takeover (my thought).

consequently sage has delayed the dividend announcement because he has been waiting to see the cards this suitor is going to present. With one of the possible solutions to the Takeover being; like what Toll Holdings did, pay out all the cash in the most tax effective way and then the company being taken over at say 80 cents a share(Assets) + cash return.

Just my opinion on a sunday arvo, was just pondering the possibility of a $1.20 takeover and how i'd explain to the wife the new ferrari in the garage after i got the proceeds.

P.S sellier i wouldn't mind hearing your thoughts on this theory.