Hmmm Looking at the Strength of the YEN today, specifically versus the AUD suggests to me this may indeed be a real turn. (Thanks to PaulBomma for his untiring work in presenting the YEN as being THE major incicating currency.. that is strength of YEN == Weakening of equities... much morsoe than the USD)
Actually on that note FletaP, what are your thoughts on the "Carry Trade" at the mo, if you can spare some time for a dissertation.
As usual, uncertainty is at its highest around turns.
I am more than aware of our longer term invester personification in RedBacka, and his stated strategy in his latest report of selling the rallies to divest himself of longer term longs and long positions.
I also would like to note (tongue in cheek, as there is a lot of respect from me regarding the man's thoughts) that Caylus's INITIAL indications of bullishness or bearishness oft seem to occur just before shorter term opposite moves.
Once again as per my larger t/a oriented post this morning, I am looking for quite a significant rally off the next WEEKLY based lows we put in... I don't know of course, and truth be known, this downtrend is the first I have been able to call properly in the last two years of concerted learning and application of t/a but my thoughts at this stage are as soon as we get a turn signal on the DAILY and other indications such as a lift on the weekly from out of a stochastic level of oversold we have the potential of quite a yummy rally which may not stop til close to 6000 on xjo.
Today's actiion so far has been very intersting, with "failure" of initial intraday timespans to make good therir promise of upside. Note that even the down finish on the US markets was not enough to make us rally as it did last week.
Now once more, Index Expiry in a day or two... If the Big Boys are the smart ones... then they would have done VERY WELL if they had SOLD the June contract.
If SO, they will need to BUY it back to roll over, no matter what positions they take on the September contract.
I noticed some very heavy buying on Friday (biggest lot size was over 1000 contracts (1170 to be exact, that is 131,917,500 dollars worth, bought in one lot on Friday.) Sounds a bit like short covering to me, though obviously of the SMART variety, IE at the bottom of the dip. On could also conjecture that a bit of a push on our index to enable further selling AT THIS STAGE into the September contract could be wrthwhile from a large insto perspective.
Going back to the currencies...
This current strength in the YEN suggests to me that whatever rally we see in the next day or so Had better be followed by a weakening of the YEN as well or else further rallies on OUR market are purely price manipulation and once more a better thing to sell rather than buy into.
(20min delay)