Ann: Strategy for Low Cost Development to Lithium Concentrate, page-45

I'm trying to figure out the cash flows for each of the stages. If we take Joe Lowry's estimate of a floor lithium carbonate price of US$30-35k for the rest of this decade, lithium chloride price (32% LCE) should be somewhere around US$10k.

Costs to produce this chloride will be much lower than the US$3.5k-4k they were assuming for LCE, since you don't have the conversion costs, and should be somewhere around US$1.5k-2k per tonne. So EBITDA per tonne of ~US$8k or using 0.66 USD/AUD exchange rate, around A$12k per tonne.

Let me know if there are issues with the basic maths below.

Stage 1- H1 2025 - 4ktpa LCE (12ktpa lithium chloride) - EBITDA of ~ US$96m (A$144m)

Stage 2 - H2 2025 - 20ktpa LCE (60ktpa lithium chloride) - EBITDA of ~US$480m (A$720m)

Stage 3 - 2028 - 40ktpa LCE (120ktpa lithium chloride) - EBITDA of ~US$960m (A$1,440m)

Stage 4 - 2030 - 60ktpa LCE (180ktpa lithium chloride) - EBITDA of ~US$1,440m (A$2,160m)

There will be some dilution possibly to deliver stage 1 and stage 2, but Stage 3 and 4 should be funded from cash flows.

The current EV/EBITDA multiple of producers like AGY which has a market cap of $618m and assuming $35k LCE price is 7x (based on current 2ktpa) is based on its expanded 12ktpa is 1.2x. PLS EV/EBITDA is around 5x based on its current 580ktpa spod production.

GLN's current market cap is only around $320m. If you applied conservative EV/EBITDA multiples of around 4x once the asset is in production, we are looking at market cap increasing to around $8bn from here by 2030, which is 27x current market cap.

The upside on GLN is crazy if they can actually deliver, and it seems like market doesn't believe it can.