So, it's the mystery of the crystallizer!
Sound like a Scooby-Doo episode!
An expensive, usually custom designed and built, complex piece of equipment.
One that was previously installed at NAL, had definitely churned out 55T/month up to battery grade 99.9% carbonate, and was being ramped to produce over 1666 tonnes/month or 20,000t/pa....not a pilot plant, not a demo plant....full commercial grade.
Is it still there?
If not, Where is it?
Was it in the process of being replaced back in 2017?
Has it not been maintained properly and is now defunct, requiring replacement?
Or is it no longer commercially viable and earmarked for upgrade and renewal?
It's interesting that as far back as your visit this time last year Split, they were mentioning the need for a crystallizer.
So, there HAS to be something in it....
Otherwise, it posses the question- '
If all the components are complete in the refining circuit, why don't you just recommission it and fire it up?'20.000 tonnes battery grade carbonate would now fetch US$ 840,000,000, going by the latest SMM spot price...that's a lot of zeros.
When you combine that with the volume waiver, that's revenues of US$630M to SYA and US$210M to PLL when all spod is converted to Carbonate.
Then, where would that leave both of PLL's offtakes?
The original Tesla offtake was earmarked for delivery from North Carolina, and with the current permitting situation, will obviously be unavailable.
Ghana is scheduled for 2024/2025, so PLL is now HEAVILY leveraged to NAL, in the short term anyway.
Without NAL, BOTH their off takes will fail...for now anyway. And they simply cannot afford that.
The bigger picture, as you said, is downstream, embracing that and charging toward it as quickly as possible.
That is the way the industry is headed.
I have tried to stay away from the PLL benefactor thematic, and just present facts, even though I do get sucked in from time to time.
But the conspiracy theorist in me, keeps coming back to PLL for the delays...I just cant shake it, just like many of the posters here...things just don't add up. 3 years to get this carbonate plant up and running... from a brownfield, mostly complete plant? C'mon Brett...
And I am not putting the responsibility of this dynamic directly on the shoulders of Keith and PLL. They have taken the opportunities presented to them, just as Sayona and Brett have. Both parties are complicit in this agreement.
Is that the deal then??? Was it always the deal???
The sweetheart deal that was struck late in 2019?...to promise PLL concentrate until 2026, 5 years after the ownership of NAL was awarded, as specified in the Quebec mandate.....allowing them to crunch these further offtakes with Tesla and LG?
It is certainly looking that way.
They seem quite sure they will have concentrate to supply.
If the carbonate circuit were complete at NAL and only needed recommissioning and ramp up, they could be pumping out carbonate in 6 months with another 6 months to a full 20000 ramp up.The Volume Waiver would kick in so where would that leave PLL?
No concentrate sales, offtake's dead, relying on future carbonate sales.
But Who is the primary gainer of the PLL offtake? PLL or SYAQ?
Who stands to lose the most in the short term, if we went straight to carbonate? PLL or SYAQ?
Has Brett acted in the best interests of his shareholders....possibly.......but I do know, Keith definitely has for PLL.
And the yet unaddressed curveball, if and when the NAL complex brings another concentrator online, does PLL still receive 50% of concentrate? Remember, LOM any excess to PLL 50% , 900/T
500kt concentrate...250kt to the carbonate plant, 250kt to the JV, with PLL taking 125kt 50% at $900/tonne??? Would certainly keep those PLL offtakes serviced. Unless this carbonate plant is being upgraded to monster 50-60kt/pa.
So, the backdoor sweetheart deal continues and this will get dragged out until at least 2025 and probably into 2026.
Dragged out, when a greenfield site could probably be commissioned in under 2 years....or if started now, June 2025.
Good luck everyone...
(20min delay)