You and I generally agree, recently.
Currently we are both bearish
However I am finding some of your use of implied percentages has become a little detached from reality.
Currently the SP is 43.5 . Your suggesting that a fall to 20.5 is not an unreasonable drop. That's a 52% decline at the drop of a hat.
On the 28 Apr at opening there was an opening flash dump to 35, the next lowest hourly candle were at 37.5. Not sure if we can count a few minutes early morning dump to 35 as the real low. But that doesn't matter.
Even from 35 to 20.5 is a 41% drop. which you find easily within the realms of acceptability. Not me.
Now on the other hand your saying that when the real news comes (not rumour, fact ) you can chase it with an 20% increase in SP. So if the SP was 30 you could pick it up post news for 36. In what universe is this going to happen.
Here is why I am preparing two acquisition at lower targets.
Firstly, A some stage (who knows when) a corporation is going to realise that they are going to incorporate the AKIDA chip into their product range, because they can see the value it can add. They will also recognise the value of the chip across multiple industries. So well before the paperwork is even being developed and with BRN SP at 30 they may decide to begin the soft acquisition of shares. No dramatic surges prior to the announcement of a trading halt just a steady rise in SP.
Am I dreaming, maybe, but not as much as your 20.5 SP or your 20% increase post trading halt.
Secondly the industries that BRN is dealing with are loosely interconnected. People know people across broad range of AI use platforms. As the deal is being prepared in a serious late stages context, I believe the information could leak, not from BRN , but though the user industry. My son is in the industry and news travels fast. Even the spies of some of the big bad boys may get a whiff. So I'm not prepared to discount some movement in the SP prior to a TH.
Thirdly. No prior movement to trading halt announcement.. possible , but I sort of doubt it.
So all that I am implying is that there could be stealthy acquisition even before BRN realises that something is afoot. Not 30 to 36 cents.
Next point. When the fact of the deal hits BRN there would be a Trading Halt. In a post trading halt good luck at picking up shares from 30 at 36. Even if the TH hits at 50 good luck at picking them up at 60. With your 20% SP increase buy-in post trading halt, I think you would be standing on the station as the train pulls out.
So I find your treatment of percentages both in declining and advancing stages is a bit of departure from reality.
I am very conscious of catching falling knives, however I take particular circumstances into consideration. One company in which I entered early have just entered the ASX300 and even with a recent falling SP I have been accumulating in my super. A falling knife. This company is marked with a very important time stamp announcement. An unexpected delay could cause some temporary problems, but the conclusion is inevitable.
I treat BRN the same way. I want to accumulate more in my super (no CGT) and while there is no timestamp I believe the conclusion is inevitable. I will grant you that if were are in the same situation in two years time, then the 20's comes into play.
I free carry my BRN holdings outside of my super. My first purchase was at 6.6c and after the Mercedes mania peak I sold a small portion of those stock at 1.63. After the CGT 50% long term discount and then off-setting four underwater stock. I paid no CGT, free carried my first, second and third purchases and banked cash to boot. BRN owes me nothing. I also foresee a day when my remaining 6.6c stock receive a franked dividend of over 6.6c
I have a series of companies, some that I free carry, that during a falling knife drop I have strategically re-bought. NAN comes to mind.
I first got into PLS at 1.20 but for some years before that it was a falling knife situation falling from 88 down to 13 in one year and its 4.47 currently and just paid a 11 cent 6 month franked dividend. Some falling knives are opportunities it's a question of using the charts, patience , targeting and timing.
After all I have said I am not buying at the current SP of 43.5. I see nothing of note likely before the next quarterly. The period to the next quarterly may offer up my first target price, We shall see?
Just my opinions, DYOR.
cheers Lies
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