I think the fact that Perseus even considered buying into Sudan in the first place is evidence that they may have the risk appetite to take on Burkina Faso. They mitigated the risk in Sudan with a measured entry to review the situation and firm up the project. It didn't work out for now but they still have the asset, in another year the situation might have calmed down.
Like everything it is risk-reward. WAF is severely undervalued on any production or cashflow measure. That comes with risk for sure, but what was the actual effect of the last two coups on WAF's operations? Practically nothing. For all the headline issues in many African countries in the last 5-10 years most companies have come out unscathed. Mali hosts some of the biggest mines in the world and has had multiple coups in the last 10 years. Ivory Coast had a coup and civil war in 2011 and is now one of the powerhouse gold producers in Africa.
What would be the upside to Perseus's valuation multiples from expanding to a 900kz producer in 2025? I think very significant. A merger could be greater than the sum of its parts here, which is rare for most deals recently. 2 +1 = 4.
Endeavour has shown the template of diluting the Burkina Faso risk with takeovers of Semafo and Teranga. When WAF's share price got smashed on the Burkina Faso coups, Endeavour barely moved, despite having >50% production from there.
The people running gold miners in Africa I think are naturally risk takers as well. The shareholders probably tend to be too.
Let's see what happens. I don't mind either way, both companies seem good value here.
In summary:
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