Just carrying on from last week. Although most do a fair play and respond with valid points against mine, here I get a bonus too from some fair few in form of some abuse. Oh well, we have to live with everybody.
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So where is WR1 now? At 134, touching 126, down from 154 last week. So has WR1 fallen more than others? I don't think so. Since last week many good Li stocks have fallen between 10 to 20%, so WR1 fall is in the median.
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But what is slightly different is many were waiting for results and were hoping that it will take it back to over 2 if not 250. But that was not to be. Why? Firstly, results were good but expected to be like this. Markets if they expect something, they are not very happy. They want something above expectations. I do Daily Reports. Eg if a Cpi data is to come, markets go positive only after its above expectations. Many times number is below last month but below or at expectations, markets sell that news. Same thing here, good numbers but not above expectations. Hence it did not provide that push many were looking for.
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Second factor is what I wrote last time. If market conditions are not good and Li sector is not doing well, most stocks will get affected. I feel that is the bigger reason. I track 73 Li stocks in my Weekly Report, and there is a pattern. Some will go against it, but most succumb to the pattern. At this stage WR1 is following the pattern.
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So last time I wrote it can ge between 110 and 120. I got rebuffed on that as well. I had mentioned macro reasons. And the reason I had mentioned is because macro is not looking good. I do Daily and Weekly reports where I cover a lot of macro. Me saying that has come from doing research around that. Like anyone, I could be wrong, as have been experts with salary in millions, because its not easy to predict. But its about balanced risk. One of the reasons I exited nearly all my Li stocks in end of Jan when SP 500 was not looking to hold 4100. I have not yet bought back even in this depressed conditions. Only one reason. Lot of bears and now financial institutions are calling for SP 500 to drop around 3250. If it falls, most stocks will get affected. If not, I am happy to have that certainity and maybe lose the first 10-20%, it's difficult to pick a bottom. But if we enter a bull market a lot of coins would be made just on the rise, across a number of stocks. So I wait. Just my way of managing the risk, may not be best strategy, but we have to find our own ways with which we are comfortable. There is no right or wrong. I know most hold thru thick and thin and with good stocks it pays off, so maybe fine here to ride out the downturn.
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So wherewhere from here? It reached 126,half of its ATH. So there is even chance it can hold that as bottom. Short term I feel it may. If you read my Daily Report from today, I am expecting some short rally but markets are in very delicate stage and I don't think anyone can say with certainity what is going to happen. We all make our guesess and hope for the best. So short term I feel it may go towards early 150 again. But after that market forces will take over. If things go bad, my numbers from last week stand 110 to 120.
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WR1 has been good to me for over a year. It has been exceptional for many long termers over here. Hope it continues to deliver for all of us.
All the best.
(20min delay)