LTR SP Prediction contest, page-234

Thanks for clearing that up. I saw that too now after going through the links in the article. The below is not around solid state batteries because they require more lithium, but your main EV batteries where the anode is graphite.

The reason why I was looking and questioning the data you posted was that I thought Tesla had improved battery efficiency. The theoretical efficiency of lithium is 0.317 kg LCE per kWh, but at the moment we are at 0.9 kg LCE per kWh. Overtime (longer term) I see that coming down to around 0.6 kg per kWh - 0.7 kg per kWh, and that is not a concern were it to do that. It is unlike you will ever get to theoretical efficiency but I would expect overtime - say next 5 years - the LCE kg need per kWh to start reducing as technology/science continues to improve in this area. Given lithium is the 3rd lightest element hence lightness is the reason for speed of vehicle and why lithium is not going away any time soon, any reduction in lithium content per kWh, as long as it does not adversely impact speed and distance to recharge, is a good thing.

(Note: Solid state batteries require around 2kg LCE per kWh at the moment, and that would come down too overtime with technology improvement, but this post is about traditional batteries.)

Improving battery efficiency in terms of inputs per kWh, would mean the costs of EVs would further reduce, and more importantly take up of EVs would further increase meaning demand for EVs would further increase beyond current forecasts (which are largely built largely on 0.9 kg LCE per kWh). Or another way to put it, despite EVs needing less lithium (and other materials per kWh) at some point in time, the increase in EV demand more than compensates for the fall in LCE need in EVs. A bit like what you saw with takeup of say computers and typical technology change overtime - they become cheaper and functions improve, but demand accelerates.

With demand projected to grow strongly for EVs as forecast now, any acceleration of that can only be good for lithium producers like LTR who will be getting to market early is my point - those getting in early reap the benefits of current prices and reap the benefits of accelerating demand as EVs become cheaper as well - improving battery efficiency also means input prices don't have to fall drastically to accelerate demand is my point because of the demand growth itself and cost of vehicles coming down as material inputs in EV batteries reduce.

For those wanting to understand where the 0.371kg LCE per kWh comes from it is in this post - calcs half way down Post #: 66633823 It is a relatively technical post for those interested.

Thanks for posting as it did make me think as to whether Tesla has started dealing with the Holy Grail of seeking to reduce inputs in batteries per kWh (i.e. technology quantum improvement), without impacting speed and distance to recharge, but looks like just a mistake in an article.

All IMO